August 27, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Oppressive heat to storms to the drought underway to the tropics & the September & October patterns are here!

Posted: Aug 26, 2021 9:22 PM
Updated: Aug 27, 2021 11:07 PM

Areas of crop stress show up in our area.  Note the pockets of orange as of August 22 indicating drought conditions.

Lobe of the historic over the entire western U.S. has a lobe into Minnesota & Iowa to northern Illinois & southern Wisconsin.

We are now seeing Moderate Drought (D1) conditions spreading in the viewing area.

For the month, rainfall is only about half of normal in our southeastern areas.

You'd never know that were are in the heart of hurricane season in the Atlantic.  Extensive Saharah dust blowing there it completely inhibiting tropical development, resulting in hot, dry subtropical ridges & lots of sunshine. 

Usually you have African waves moving westward off the coast in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.  These eventually become the tropical storms & hurricanes that targe the U.S. & Caribbean.

All of the action is in the Gulf of Mexico.

Initial thoughts were on action really getting going by next week with a landfall, then early Labor Day weekend impacts farther north.  This system should accelerate enough to be near Newfoundland by the start of Labor Day weekend.

Hurricane Ida is on the move northwestward with expected landfall potentially as a major hurricane (Category 4) near Monday 2 a.m.

It eye should pass just west of New Orleans.  Katrina's eye passed just east of New Orleans.

Significant, life-threatening storm surge of 10-15' is expected in southeastern Louisiana with tornadoes Louisiana to Georgia.  12-19" rainfall is possible in Louisiana.

Catastrophic wind damage will occur around the eye at landfall with hurricane force gusts as far inland as central Mississippi.

The only thing Ida is looking to do for us is keep our cold front stalled a while longer just south of the area Tuesday & keep it wet a bit longer.

Otherwise, the main rainfall & wind of the storm will be south & southeast us with the likely core of the system to tracks across Kentucky & Tennessee (though Ida's rain will get as far north as southern Indiana).

Highs varied Thursday 80-93 depending on cloud cover & rainfall & where outflow boundaries were based on location.

In this hot, oppressive pattern, if you are going to cool it down, you need storms, rain, rain-cooled air & clouds.

Those things mentioned also impacted peak heat indices, which topped out at 84-109.

Highs today reached 89-94.

Heat indices peaked at 97-112.

Couple isolated showers/storms (20%) are possible Saturday with near 90 to 96 for highs with heat indices around 101-115.  Winds will be southwest at 10-15 mph by afternoon.

Couple isolated showers/storms possible Sunday (20-25%) with near 90 to 96 for high with heat indices 101-115. Wind will be southwest at 10-20 mph by afternoon.  More in the way of scattered showers & storms (40-45%) arrive in two broken lines after 5 p.m.

The two broken lines of showers & storms will then collapse & dissipate over the area Sunday night.  However, some more will redevelop early Monday morning & Monday afternoon with 45% coverage.

Additional scattered showers & storms are possible Monday night-Tuesday as front stiall near I-74 to US 136 corridor due to Hurrican Ida backing things up a bit.

It will still be rather humid Monday-Tuesday, but it will be cooler given the clouds & scattered rainfall around....& gradual wind shift to the northeast.

Highs of 82-87 are likely Monday & 78-85 Tuesday.

Ida remnants should stay largely southeast of our area Tuesday night-Wednesday.  We should see sun & a nice refreshing northeast wind 15-30 mph. 

Highs of 77-82 are expected.  Dew points will drop into the 50s!  It will feel much better.

Thursday looks good with northeast winds & highs 77-82 with lows in the 50s.

Friday will warm up as east wind becomes southeast with highs 80-85.  Humidity should still be held in check with dew points 55-63.

Dew points should rise to more low to mid 60s Friday night with lows 62-67.

As for Labor Day weekend, it looks like cold front will approach & pass late Saturday to early Sunday with some showers & storms.

After muggy highs in the 80s to 90 Saturday with south winds 15-22 mph & 68-72 Saturday night, highs on Sunday should run 80-85.

We may also have another system in either the Gulf of Mexico or off the coast of Florida after Labor Day.  It does not look like tropical impacts for the U.S. for Labor Day weekend at this point.  It is looking later.

After this, note the warm-up to summer-like weather again with above normal temperatures:

However, note the taste of Fall in mid-September coming in!  Lows in the 40s are expected!

It looks to be rather cool & comfortable right to late September.  The nights will be especially refreshing.

As for September as a whole, the pattern shows drier than normal regime here, but the tropics are the wildcard.  It should be noted that after this Gulf surge, the emphasis should turn more & more to Florida & the East Coast with time in September.

We do look to return consistently above normal overall for the first 8 days of October with more Summer-like weather.

October continues to trend drier than normal.  October also continues to look warmer than normal.

The tropics will be the wildcard.  It is expected to active late this year with emphasis on Florida & the East Coast once the Saharan dust thins.

Usually that set-up results in lower likelihood of tropical systems bringing us rainfall.  We will monitor.

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Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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