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August 27, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

The low-down on Laura & our upcoming cold front. Also, a look from now to October at the weather trends.

Posted: Aug 27, 2020 9:30 PM
Updated: Aug 27, 2020 11:05 PM

Highs today ran from 83-92.  It was coolest in the far south with thicker cloud cover, while the north saw more sun, though that fueled some severe storms just north of the viewing area.

Some of you received some rainfall today, but most of it was less than 0.15" & coverage was only 30-35%.  We recorded a trace at our WLFI ob site today with a high of 88 & a low of 74 (official ASOS high & low at the Purdue Airport was 88/75).

Heat indices ranged from 91 to 106 today in the viewing area.  It peaked at 96 at the Purdue Airport & 99 at WLFI site.

Laura's high cloud shield is overspreading the area tonight.

Meanwhile, the Laura remnants will move toward Kentucky & the Ohio River area.  A couple of old boundaries from showers & storms (courtesy of spokes of Laura) will pivot northward & may trigger a few showers/storms (25-40%) tonight through tomorrow morning.

The spokes of Laura interracting with decent flow aloft in the "Ring of Fire" may promote additional scattered storms Friday afternoon with some severe weather risk.  The greatest concentration of storms may end up over northeastern Indiana to Ohio, but 50% coverage seems reasonable here.

Then, tomorrow night, line of storms that may produce widespread severe weather in Iowa to northern Illinois from upper trough & surface cold front.

This line will weaken some, but it may still have some severe weather risk as it moves in & through viewing area tomorrow night.

Slight Risk of severe weather is up for the viewing area. 

Main threat would be a few severe gusts.  A random brief tornado cannot completely be ruled out, nor can a brief hailer.

Heaviest storms will produce locally-heavy rainfall.

You can see what will be Tropical Depression Laura along the Ohio River in this NAM Simulated Radar model.

Note the scattered storms here Friday (note, again, the tendency for the model data to really flare up the storms just northeast of us with flooding rainfall & a lot of severe weather............but we will see how this unfolds with new data later tonight to tomorrow morning, then the nowcasting will be underway) & then the line northwest of the area that will pass through tomorrow night.

The weekend still looks good with decreasing humidity Saturday & low humidity Sunday with highs 78-85 & lows in the 50s.

Saturday will be a breezy day (with fair-weather cumulus clouds) with north-northwest winds 14-25 mph.

We may pick up some high clouds with some fair-weather cumulus Sunday.  The high cirrus will be streaming off of towering severe t'storm complexes from Kansas & Oklahoma through southern Missouri to Arkansas & Tennessee near & along the stalled front.

Front will stall over or near the viewing area next week with multiple rounds of showers & storms ahead.

Timing is in question, but currently, it appears late Monday-Monday night, late Tuesday-Tuesday night, late Wednesday & Wednesday night & Thursday are the time frames.

In terms of severe weather, the main corridor is shaping up mainly just south & southwest of our area.

However, parameters support some risk getting in here (MARGINAL to SLIGHT parameters) Wednesday evening-night & again Thursday.  There is also a brief window for isolated or MARGINAL RISK-type parameters here Tuesday evening-night.

September 5-8 period will need to be monitored for periods of severe weather risk as we heat up & multiple rounds of showers & storms pass.

Overall, the above normal mean temperature trend will continue the rest of August into early September.

Rainfall looks, overall, above normal.

Substantial cool-down will take place after period of severe weather risk with below normal temperatures in mid-September.  Widespread 40s for lows are likely.

Late September to early October rebounds back above normal.

Mid-September to early October features below normal rainfall.

It appears that temperatures will average above normal in mid-October with rainfall going back slightly above normal for that period.

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Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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