August 26, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

More oppressive heat with some storms risk, a cool-down & an eye on the Gulf of Mexico for potentially two tropical storms or hurricanes (with U.S. landfalls).

Posted: Aug 25, 2021 10:45 PM
Updated: Aug 26, 2021 3:16 PM

Highs Wednesday ended up at 86-96 with heat indices peaking at 96-115.

The worst of the heat was from Fountain to northwestern Tippecanoe to northwest White & western Pulaski counties.  There, highs reached 93-96 & dew points reached as high as 81.

It was a bit cooler east & southeastward where outflow boundary from Indianapolis morning storm complex & the clouds from that complex influenced the temperatures.

After storms lastnight with highly-variable rainfall of 0.10 to 2" (& the wind damage southwest of Rensselaer & near Lake Village) & some pea to penny hail in a few spots, we have a lot of clouds in the heart of the viewing area & eastward currently.

We have also had a few spotty showers & t'showers.

Where the clouds & any spotty rainfall is located, it is 78-84, but where there are clouds breaking, temperatures are 85-91 with heat indices 88-96.

Trend is for more sunshine this afternoon-evening with highs varying from 84-94 with heat indices varying from near 90 to 107.

Some scattered storms are possible this afternoon-evening.  I kept coverage at 35% with best coverage southern half.  There is the risk of an isolated severe storm or two with wet microburst risk.  Couple isolated <1" diameter hail cores are possible.

MCV & outflow boundary from severe Minnesota to Iowa complex(es) may produce some scattered storms Friday morning-midday.  Isolated severe storm or two is possible.  I'll keep risk of isolated storm in the afternoon as capping overspreads area as hot ridge expands again rapidly to the north, shifting any storm track well north of the area.

I increased storm coverage from 25% to 30% Friday AM-midday & then dropped to 20% by early to mid-PM.  I'd go higher coverage in the AM-midday, but it is not clear how quickly capping will arrive.  It may begin to arrive early enough to keep coverage from exceeding 30%.

Highs of near 90-96 are expected with heat indices nearing 100-113.

Saturday looks strongly capped with sunshine & highs 91-96 with heat indices near 100 to 114.

As for Sunday, I went for 20% storm coverage with sunshine & 91-96 with heat indices near 100 to 114 again.

By Sunday night, cold front should be lined up from north of Detroit to South Bend to northern Missouri with a narrow line of storms.

Front should stall near to south of our area Monday-Tuesday, so will keep some spotty showers & storms in the forecast, mainly for the southern half of the area.  Winds will turn to the northeast behind the front & highs will cool to 78-84.

Note the tropical remnants passing nearby to our southeast.  This will keep the front from moving much farther south than I-70 until Wednesday night.  It will keep some scattered rain in the forecast for Wednesday, however.

Tropical development will be focused in the Yucatan area to western half of the Gulf of Mexico due to Saharan dust storms shutting down Atlantic & western Caribbean development.

Hurricane should make landfall in Louisiana Sunday night-early Monday morning & then reach Tennessee as a tropical depression by Tuesday evening.

If it track too far north it means more rain for us, but right now, much of that rain is just southeast of us.

This will be a period of very active weather in the Yucatan to Gulf of Mexico up to September 6.  Not just one, but two tropical storms or hurricanes are expected.

After this, it looks dry Thursday-Friday.  Eyes will be on second tropical system in the Gulf, which may make landfall in Texas or western Louisiana around September 6.

Water churned up & cooled by the first hurricane may make for slow strengthening of this storm, but it may strengthen substantially to a hurricane as it approaches landfall potentially somewhere in the Lake Charles to Corpus Christi corridor in very warm water.

Timing is such that any in direct or direct impacts to us would tend occur after the Labor Day weekend, but we will monitor.

There will be a cold front to our northwest approaching on Saturday, September 4 as we begin to heat up & turn humid again.  We will monitor to see if any showers & storms impact us that day from the front.

The Gulf Coast will also continue to be monitored.  Some data suggests that this second tropical system will make it into our area around September 8 with widespread rainfall.  We will see & just keep tracking.  It is a long way out, so changes & tweak will occur in the exact track.

Mid-September continues to look like a period of below normal temperatures.

By late September, temperatures should be warming back above normal again.

West Lafayette
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Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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