Showers/storms this evening & overnight may bring an isolated, random embedded severe storm or two as two vigorous shortwave troughs & a surface cold front comes through.
After showers/storms this evening, after some lulling, there are the new showers & storms are possible overnight to Tuesday morning below.
Some locally-heavy rainfall is possible this evening-tonight.
With big bowling ball upper low over Canada, a series of cold front & shortwaves will pivot south & eastward.
The deeper moisture will be tied up well south of our area & more & more with the approach of Dorian toward Florida.
Tuesday looks pretty muggy, but the Wednesday-Friday period, not so much.
An isolated shower/t'shower is possible late Tuesday evening-night.
A couple more are possible Wednesday late in the north.
A few isolated to spotty showers/storms are possible Thursday PM.
A few more are possible Friday.
Coverage for these days will run 20-30%.
It will heat up to the mid to upper 80s Friday after near 80 to the mid 80s Tuesday to Thursday.
It is unclear what Dorian will do beyond reaching Florida by the weekend.
The overall trend is to keep it in Florida or a second landfall along the Gulf, then push storm northeastward.
Sunday-Monday look good with highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
It does look to heat up to 85-90 briefly late next week with a cold front of some storms passing.
After that, highs may only run around 68-73 with lows 43-47.
Early half of September mean temperatures look cooler than normal overall.
Late September mean temperatures should average above normal overall.
First 7 days of October look to feature normal mean temperatures for the time of year.
Rainfall overall September 1-October 7 looks a bit above normal. Later September looks the wettest of that period.
In terms of October, there is no clear signal showing a higher likelihood of an early killing freeze. However, there is no sign of an extra-late killing freeze.
I think of a killing freeze as temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to 30 & lower. 31-32 will not normally be a killer, though it would burn tender vegetationan. 33-36 would cause some burn as well.
We will monitor in the coming weeks.
Analog data has suggested an earlier-than-normal first freeze & killing freeze.
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