August 24, 3:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Dangerous heat, decreasing air quality & some storms ahead...

Posted: Aug 24, 2021 12:46 PM
Updated: Aug 24, 2021 4:11 PM

Temperatures are 90-96 as of 3:30 p.m. with heat indices of 99-112.

Heat Advisory is up until 8 p.m. Eastern.  Another one will likely be issued for tomorrow by NWS.

It is mostly sunny to sunny & quite capped.  We have had one storm today & that popped over Cass County/White County this morning & moved through western Howard County.  1.42" of rainfall was reported from Russiaville.  That has been it though. 

The sky is deep blue with no smoke aloft today, but there is actually some smoke near the ground in this haze from the northeastern Minnesota to Ontario fires:

So, Air Quality Index today is in the Moderate range.  However, it should be noted that in parts of the Greater Lafayette area, it appears it is in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, according to current AirNow.gov data.

Overall, the median is around 65 for AQI at the moment for the area & Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups is +100.

Heat Advisory is up from West Virginia to the Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the intense heat.

Even though we are especially capped & high-resolution model data shows nothing today, I'd like to keep 25-30% POPs in for our area for storms this evening & into tonight given the extreme heating & a couple of approaching outflow boundaries.  Let's keep mention of isolated severe storm in there too, given high CAPE.

Dangerous heat will result in highs of 92-97 with heat indices 103-116 as upper 70s to 80s dew points migrate out of Illinois & our western & southwestern counties a bit farther eastward.

Tomorrow features risk of a couple AM storms then multi-cell storms develop & gell into a band or cluster over the area as old MCV pivots through the Chicago to South Bend areas.

There is the threat of a couple to few wet downbursts here & locally-heavy rainfall of +2" an hour is possible from any storms with those dew points climbing to 77-83.  That, with highs 92-97 means dangerous heat indices of near 103 to 116.

I upped the coverage from 35% in lastnight's forecast to 45% for tomorrow's storms.

Any storms should be out of here with time tomorrow night.

Thursday is hot & oppressive with highs in the 90s with heat indices +100. 

I put coverage at 35% for storms given MCV to our north & an outflow boundary in the area with all of the heating.

Again, given high CAPE, isolated severe storm is possible with wet downburst threat.  Any storm could dump quick torrential rainfall that results in local ponding to flash flooding.

Storms are possible Thursday late evening-night to Friday morning on tail ends of severe storm complexes to our north & northeast in the "Ring of Fire".  A couple severe storms are possible with some locally-heavy rainfall.  I kept coverage at 35%.

The rest of Friday currently looks dry with southerly winds & 90s with heat indices in the 100s.

Saturday looks breezy, hot & oppressive with 90s & heat indices in the 100s with south-southwest winds 15-22 mph.

Isolated storms are possible Sunday with 90s & heat indices in the 100s.

It does appear the surface cold front will finally cold through Monday with scattered storms.  Wind fields are very weak, so severe risk is nil.

Highs will run near 90 to the 90s with 90s to 100s heat indices with wind shift to northwest behind the front later in the day.

Highs Tuesday will only be 78-83 with dew points in the 50s with a north to northeast breeze! 

We will heat up after that ahead of another surface cold front.  We may get some storms from it later next week, followed by another cool down before we heat up once again & stay quite hot & rather dry into the early half of September.

It still looks like a substantial cool-down mid-September.  Nights in the 40s are expected before we heat back up as we end September.

West Lafayette
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Hi: 37° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 21°
Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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