After 50s to around 60 Friday morning, highs ran 72-78 Friday afternoon. Temperatures exceeded the 70-75 expectation slightly due to that burst of sun that occurred. This hole in the overcast that developed over the area appeared to have occurred in sinking air west & north of the weakening area of rainfall.
Numerous showers & storms will develop & pass late tonight-Saturday morning. Main threats are locally-heavy +1" rainfall & some small hail. Abundant cloud-to-ground lightning will also be an issue with these elevated storms just along & north of the warm front.
After these storms, it should be breezy to windy with sustained winds at 14-19 mph & gusts 24-30 mph tomorrow with a mix of clouds & sun & highs around 80 to the mid 80s. Dew points will skyrocket to the 72-77 range by late in the day.
Late Friday night-Saturday morning:
Some new scattered storms may fire in the evening after 5 p.m. along the outflow boundary of the morning storms & near/along the warm front. These will last into the early overnight. An isolated severe storm or two is possible with the main threats being wind/hail, though brief isolated tornado risk may briefly evolve given the low-level shear with the outflow boundary storms being & near/along the surface warm front.
The storms should exit by 12 a.m.:
After a muggy Saturday night with any storms exiting, Sunday will be partly cloudy, breezy, hot, very humid & hazy. I have decreased the rainfall coverage from 35% to 25%. It now only looks like a few isolated storms in the afternoon-early evening, but these would occur along an old outflow boundary from storms of Saturday morning & evening. Heat indices will run near 100 to +105 Sunday.
We have not had this kind of heat since July, so be heat aware!
What we will need to watch is a bow of severe storms northwest & north of our area late Sunday evening to early overnight. They look as if they will stay north of our area, but this is not 100% certain.
If they turn a bit more south of east or backbuild more than expected then storm potential will go up in the north. Isolated severe risk could even develop.
Sunday afternoon-late night:
With heat indices near 100 & highs near 90 to the 90s Monday & Tuesday (with overnight lows in the 70s), skies look partly cloudy. Southwest winds 15-25 mph may occur each day with even a 10-15 mph wind at night.
An isolated storm or two is possible Monday along the outflow boundary from the Sunday night storms to the north. Tuesday looks completely dry presently.
Tuesday night, it appears that a line of storms may pass through as the front works southeastward, in response to upper trough swinging through the northeast Great Lakes to New England.
Although the front will outrun better wind fields aloft for organized severe weather north of our area, a few isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out with the line. It may tend to gust out over our area & the gust front/outflow boundary surge ahead of it, causing a gradual weakening.
Movement of the front south of our area Wednesday should actually bring a dry, bit cooler & less humid day with winds from the northeast. Skies should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny.
Front should move back northward, bring storms (some severe risk possible) later Thursday-Friday to possible early Saturday, then dry, hot, humid, breezy weather Sunday-Monday.
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