August 23, 9:56 PM Weather Forecast Update

I have gone through all new data & have your latest 14-day outlook here.

Posted: Aug 23, 2018 9:22 PM
Updated: Aug 23, 2018 9:59 PM

It was a cool morning, but a nice, warm day.  Highs were still below normal, however.

High/mid clouds will continue to increase tonight.  Lows will drop into the 50s with a light wind at times from the southeast.

Skies will become cloudy & wave of scattered showers will pass tomorrow morning through midday.  After that, a couple isolated showers are possible in a mostly cloudy sky.

Given the dry air in place & that we are going to drop into the 50s tonight, showers will keep us cool through evaporative cooling tomorrow morning-midday.  So, we should stay in the 60s up to that point.  We should rebound by afternoon, but with a lack of good warm air advection in here with a southeast wind at 10-15 mph, highs will run just around 70 to 75.

Rainfall totals of 0.40" in the far western/northwestern counties will trickle down to trace to 0.02" in the far east as the wave of showers gradually weakens with eastward progression.

Severe storms should fire just south of the warm front in southern & eastern Iowa to northern Missouri Friday evening & pass through our area late Friday night-Saturday morning.  They will be weakening as they march eastward, so no severe weather is expected here.

So, much of Friday night will be dry here, until late with warmer, humid conditions.  Lows will drop to 65-68.

As for Saturday, the period of morning showers/storms, skies should turn partly cloudy with strong southwesterly winds at 15-25 mph & surging humidity to dew points in the middle 70s by afternoon.  Highs will run 82-87.

New scattered storms should fire in the late afternoon-evening near & just south of the front perhaps on the outflow boundary of the morning storms (it will be working back northward on the strong southwest winds all afternoon). 

Isolated severe storms are possible, given the expected instability in the tropical airmass, the low-level shear & a brushing of increasing mid-level flow to our northwest.

These should exit by 11 p.m., it currently appears, followed by just a muggy, oppressive night of lows in the 72-76 range & a southwest wind at 10-20 mph.

The "Ring of Fire" will be active on the periphery of the intense heat & very high humidity.  A few scattered storms are possible here Sunday afternoon-evening with highs in the 90-94 range & heat indices of 99-105.  Southwest winds of 15-25 mph will help to ease the discomfort some, as will any storm.  A random, isolated severe storm is possible, though the better support for severe weather will reside north & northwest of our area.

Organized clusters of severe storms may occur from the Dakotas, through Minnesota to northeast Iowa & as far south as southern Wisconsin.  These storms clusters will get going as early as Saturday night with a cluster of violent supercells progged to cross north-central Minnesota with large to very large hail, a few tornadoes & damaging wind gusts.

Other than an isolated storm or two, Monday looks just partly cloudy, hazy, hot, humid & breezy with southwest winds 15-25 mph & highs near 90 to 94 with heat indices upper 90s to 100s.

Looks the same for Tuesday, but completely dry. 

Overnights will be oppressive with lows in the lower to middle 70s & southwest breezes at 10-20 mph.

Front may sink southward a bit Wednesday or Thursday, increasing potential of some storms.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with high humidity with southwest breezes.  Lows will run near 70 to the lower 70s.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding when the best potential of storms will be Wednesday-Thursday-Friday.  I hope to be able to pinpoint this much more by the weekend.

Very warm to hot, humid pattern with occasional bouts of storms may be with us during the Labor Day weekend & perhaps to Labor Day.

Some severe risk could develop as the stronger mid & upper flow skims by us.

Above normal temperatures should tend to dominate, even after Labor Day.  Notice the hot upper ridge only re-expand after any cooling.

Lots of upper ridge domination & above normal temperatures suggested right up to late September:

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Delphi
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Monticello
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