August 23, 10 AM Weather Forecast Update

Dangerous heat is ahead this week followed by risk of storms.

Posted: Aug 23, 2021 8:19 AM
Updated: Aug 23, 2021 9:27 AM

Torrential storms & castastrophic flooding in Tennessee currently has death toll at 22 with 43 missing, while Henri is inland over the Northeast.  Highest measured gust from Henri was 70 mph at Block Island, Rhode Island.  Flooding is occurring New Jersey to New Hampshire with up to +9" of rainfall so far. 

The wind damage reports are from southern the New York City area to eastern Massachusetts while the flooding reports are from Delaware & eastern Pennsylvania to New Jersey to central New York to Connecticut.

Impassable roads from flooding were reported as far west as 60 miles west-northwest of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 

Some of the worst flooding has been as the moisture is lifted up & over the western slopes of the southern Catskills northwest of Poughkeepsie, New York (especially around Slide Mountain at 4,180').

8.05" has officially fallen at the NWS ASOS site in Central Park, a record.  This includes 4.45" in 4 hours.  The nearly 2" in an hour was the highest 1-hour rainfall total on-record for New York City with records back to January 1, 1869.

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Here, dangerous heat is the story this week (along with some storm risk) with Heat Advisories &/or Excessive Heat Warnings likely issued by NWS.

After slightly cooler conditions with lows of 63-68 early this morning with fog, we are headed for 88-94 today after 87-93 yesterday.  Heat indices yesterday ran 95-106 yesterday.

Today they will reach 96-107 with west-southwest to southwest winds increasing to 9-15 mph.

We should run partly cloudy overall.  I kept 20% t'shower risk in for this afternoon.

The main corridor of storm risk (& severe risk around SLIGHT) to Thursday is the Dakotas to Wisconsin & Michigan.

However, we need to watch this storm complexes as I have seen many time these develop & bit of a mind of their own & break off the main corridor & turn more to the southeast.  That could happen here.

So, that said, I think going with 20-30% storm potential right now Tuesday-Thursday seems good to account for risk of one of these storm complexes going rogue & coming into our area with some severe weather risk.

Otherwise, highs will run in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices 103-117 overall.  Overnight lows will run in the 70s.

Last week to even Friday, it appeared that would see a couple rounds of storms with the cold front Wednesday-Thursday & then the front would be south of us Friday for nice, cooler, less humid weather.

It now appears this entire process has stalled.

It looks hot & oppressive right through next weekend.

In fact, I do not see any heat relief until August 31.  It appears the cold front will finally pass through on the morning of August 31, ushering brief stint of cooler, less humid weather.  Some storms are possible the night-time of August 30 to the morning of August 31.

However, we should heat back up & turn muggy to oppressive again by Labor Day weekend.

In terms of storm risk, it appears that the main corridor Friday-Sunday will be the Dakotas to Minnesota to Ontario.

Here, it looks like less potential of a storm complex going rogue during that time & any storm here would be a couple random pop-ups moving southwest to northeast in the area with 20-25% coverage..

Highs in the lower to middle 90s are likely with heat indices 103-117.  Winds looks southwest 10-15 mph daily.  Overnight lows should run in the 70s.

You can see the dominant hot pattern with above normal to well-above normal temperatures over the eastern U.S.

Meanwhile, you see the taste of fall over the Canadian prairies to North Dakota to Montana.

Fire risk will be exceptionally high in California, but we should see a spurt of relief in the Pacific Northwest after extreme risk.

After more hot, muggy weather, a significant change should occur at the midpoint of September.

Strong cold front should pass with some storms, followed by a taste of fall with lows in the 40s.

Cooler weather should hang on until warmth begins to build back, especially into early October.

October looks warmer than normal with some more summer-like weather ahead in the early part of the month.

West Lafayette
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Feels Like: 21°
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Monticello
Mostly Cloudy
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Hi: 35° Lo: 20°
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Logansport
Cloudy
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Feels Like: 18°
Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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