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August 22, 2:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update on hot, hot, oppressive pattern here with storm risk developing & very active weather elsewhere.

Posted: Aug 22, 2021 2:21 AM
Updated: Aug 22, 2021 3:10 PM

Catastrophic floods gradually recede now after torrential storms form southern Illinois to Tennessee late Friday night-Saturday AM & then again Saturday PM.  State records for Tennessee for rainfall rates (+7" in 2.5 hours) may have been broken & near/state record rainfall totals of +18" have been recorded over a 24-hour period.  Even Evansville, Indiana area near the airport saw flash flooding with +2" rain in less than 2 hours.

This all occurred atop wet soil from training storms there Thursday-Friday from our weak upper low. 

Wall of deep, fast-moving water washed out many roads Kentucky to Tennessee & some towns were heavily damaged by wall of water (especially Waverly, Tennessee).

Such a massive amount of moisture was intercepted to prevent much from happening here Saturday or Saturday night here.  Other than a couple isolated showers, any even isolated storm stayed in Illinois.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Henri (I have just pronounced it as "Henry", but is French "ahn-ree").  I have learned that hurricane names are rarely pronounced as they appear & are often more complicated than they should be LOL.

Henri will be a disastrous scenario for New England somewhat comparable with Sandy in 2012, Irene in 2011 Bob in 1991, Chris in 1988, Donna in 1960 Carol in 1954 & TWO hurricanes in this area in 1944.  The 1938 hurricane is the big one for that area since 1925.  The other "BIG ONE" is the 1821 hurricane that is the only record hurricane to have the eye wall & eye move right over New York City.  It was a high-end Category 3 or low-end 4 when it made landfall in southern New Jersey & was still likely a high-end 2 or low-end 3 when moving right over New York.

This is a disastrous situation with big storm surge, wind & flooding.  Angle of the landfall at Full Moon will drive wall of water into Narraganset Bay & as it slows down over the hilly to mountainous interior of southern New York, northwestern Connecticut & Massachusetts to southern Vermont & New Hampshire, some spots may see +12" rain atop wet soil.

Isolated tornado risk will develop on Monday eastern Massachusetts to New Hampshire, even Maine.

Already, a PRE has set up (heavy rainfall event prior to arrive of hurricane bands) with flooding rain New Jersey to New York.

It looks to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on the eastern edge of Long Island then may weaken to high-end tropical storm as it hits Connecticut.

Highs Saturday here reached 88-93 with heat indices 92-105 after Saturday morning lows of 64-70.

Here, a couple/few isolated t'showers are possible Sunday with sunshine, some clouds & highs 86-92 with heat indices of 91-100.

The week looks dangerously hot & humid, especially Tuesday-Thursday.  Highs of 88-93 will eventually get to 91-96 with heat indices as high as 99-116.

Lows in the 70s will dominate.

Monday will feature increasing clouds & potentially an isolated shower/storm as old complex of storms from Minnesota & Iowa fades rapidly.

Tuesday shows isolated storms possible.  Right now, looks like main complex of storms setting up northwest of area, but we will monitor to see if it can sneak in here.

Wednesday & Thursday show risk of complex &/or clusters of storms with SLIGHT RISK parameters making it in here late in the day with wind threat.  We will monitor.

It appears that we may not be able to really completely get this surface cold front through until after next weekend.

If that is indeed the case, then it may stay hot & oppressive right through next weekend & risk of some storm complexes &/or clusters with some severe weather risk will be with us.

It has the potential to take to September 1 or 2 to FINALLY get the front through enough to cut the temperatures & humidity.  However, it does warm up quite rapidly after that to more heat & humidity.

Near/record heat day &/or night cannot be ruled out.

FINALLY, we see solid, significant heat relief for mid-September with fall-like weather with lows in the 40s.

That, after period of storminess.

We do warm back above normal by the very end of September for a good stretch of mid-September looks comfortably cool & dry.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
Mostly Cloudy
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Logansport
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Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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CountyCasesDeaths
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Unassigned0599

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