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August 21, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update: Late-Season Heat Wave with Some of the Highest Temps of 2020 Next Week

Another heat wave is ahead in what has been the hottest summer overall since 2012.

Posted: Aug 21, 2020 2:58 PM
Updated: Aug 21, 2020 9:29 PM

Highs today reached 81-87 after lows this morning at 51-58.

Summer 2020 has been the hottest since 2012, not because of any major heat waves with temperatures at or above 100 (97 has been the highest in the viewing area with highest heat index at 118), but consistent heat.  We have had few significant breaks in the warmer than normal pattern since mid-May. 

The two main breaks occurred in 1) early August & then 2) here in late August with below normal temperatures.

In terms of rainfall, for the viewing area as a whole, the summer has been as dry as 2019, when flash dry, droughty conditions developed last summer.  Before that, you have to go back to 2012 to find a drier summer.

This is interesting to say after the record flash flooding in southern Newton County from training storms back earlier in the summer.

May-July rainfall anomalies:

Another heat wave is ahead with some of the highest temperatures of 2020 likely next week.

Overall hot, humid pattern dominates late August to early September as extreme heat moves eastward.

Watch the progress eastward.............

August 21-28 overall mean temperature anomalies:

August 28-September overall mean temperature anomalies:

With a fall mood recently in the area, this heat wave will serve as a reminder that summer is now where near over.

Remember, at 95, dog can see a paw burn on black asphalt in 1 minute on a mostly sunny to sunny day!  They can occur in 5 minutes on a fully-exposed concrete sidewalk.

Getting back into summer mode, remember to "Beat the Heat, Check the Back Seat".

Saturday looks dry & partly cloudy with 86-91 for highest with heat indices 88-94 (after lows in the morning at 58-65).

After lows 63-67 Saturday night, Sunday looks partly cloudy with highs 87-92 with heat indices topping out at 92-99.

Wind fields aloft will be extremely weak & front to our north will stall out.  Temperatures will be rather warm aloft in our area for much in the way of storm development.  However, given the front just north of us, an obscure wind convergence zone setting up over the area between the weak surface front & a small, weak little low in eastern Indiana, I did continue to include some t'storm POPs for Sunday.

I kept them at 30% for late in the day.  Any storm would be pulsey in nature with very low severe weather risk.

Monday-Thursday look dry & hot with highs peaking at 91-97 generally & lows 65-73.

Air quality will go down & Ragweed & warm-season grass pollen will go WAY UP.  If you have allergies &/or asthma, be aware!

This will be a good set-up for "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Riders" from Manitoba to New England & the mid-Atlantic (as far west as Ohio?).  Eyes will be on potential of a random derecho that tracks from Manitoba & Minnesota to the Northeast (as far west as Ohio?).

This would occur on the periphery of this intense heat wave next week with widespread 100s in the Plains & widespread 90s Midwest, Great Lakes & Southeast to Northeast.

Potentially major Hurricane Laura along the Gulf Coast will back up weather pattern, bringing us a longer period of hot, dry weather.

However, as the remnant circulation & moisture of Pacific Hurricane Genevieve combines with upper trough, a rather deep surface low will develop in Iowa.

Meanwhile the remnants of what will become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Marco (which will likely make a Texas landfall) will move into the Plains.  Hurricane Laura remnants will follow.

All three features, with a cold front & upper trough, will swing through with rounds of showers & storms for the area next weekend.

Strengthening wind fields associated with these features & the strong surface low with upper trough do suggest some severe weather risk.

Still looks like bit cooler than normal mid-September, however.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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