As of mid-week, more than half of the viewing area is still considered Abnormally Dry, according to NOAA's U.S. Drought Monitor.
For August, rainfall is below normal overall for a good 70% of the area with normal amounts in some areas, mainly in the south.
Interestingly, the only real appreciable rainfall in August for Iowa occurred with the derecho.
Lows this morning dropped to 49-58.
Highs today reached 79-86.
Tonight looks clear & cool at 54-59 with some patchy fog developing. This will be followed by 85-90 with lots of sun, low humidity (but not much wind from the southeast to south) Friday.
Saturday will turn partly cloudy (especially in our southeastern half) with highs 85-90. The humidity rises late with dew points reaching the 63-68 range, followed by low temperatures of 65-70 Saturday night (with partly cloudy skies).
Sunday looks very warm to hot & humid with highs 87-92 with scattered storms possible late with partly cloudy skies & heat indices 93-99.
It looks like a broken line of pulsey storms with peak of 40% coverage. If a storm can really pulse up & go severe, it would be isolated.
It looks hot & dry Monday through Thursday with humid weather Tuesday-Thursday leading to heat indices of 96-107 eventually.
Combination of the old remnant moisture from Pacific Hurricane Genevieve & likely Tropical Storm or Hurricane (that is looking likely to now make landfall somewhere in Texas, rather than Alabama or Florida), means lots of heavy rain & storms from Nebraska to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois & Michigan next week.
Given that deep tropical connection (& old tropical circulation[s]) & an upper trough with strengthening mid & upper level winds & in the Plains & parts of the Corn Belt (with a surface cold front), it all means heavy rainfall & severe weather risk from Nebraska & the Dakotas, Iowa to Michigan to Ontario & New England Tuesday through Thursday.
We will get in on some of this Thursday evening-night with up to SLIGHT RISK parameters in place as a line or band of heavy storms moves in & through the area.
Then, Friday looks a bit cooler with highs in the 80s after 91-95 Thursday.
HOWEVER.............there is one fly in the ointment & that would be the potential of hurricane in the Caribbean to not curve north & northeastward, but more more toward the northwest & hit South Florida, then the Panhandle of Florida.
If this would happen to become a major hurricane & track a hair to the west along the Gulf Coast after hitting southern Florida, then it could create a bit of a juggerknot in the pattern.
Front would stall north of our area or right over our area & we are either hot & drier longer or stormy & then wetter longer.
We will see how this evolves & how future analysis shows how these players work in tandem to determine our exact forecast.