August 20, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Showers & storm with Marginal Risk of severe will give way to nice cool-down...............then hot, humid weather down the road

Posted: Aug. 20, 2018 1:36 PM
Updated: Aug. 20, 2018 2:37 PM

First wave of showers/storms is passing.

New ones should pop west & southwest in the sunshine & move east & northeast afternoon-evening with isolated severe weather risk.  Isolated wind, hail, tornado risk is there, along with localized heavy rainfall of 2" per hour.

Strong mid & upper flow is catching up to the storms in Clinton/Carroll/Howard.  Brief tornado, gust 60-70 mph poss.  Storm is a hair elevated, but rooted low enough to warrent severe threat.

This particular storm may outrun the stronger flow as it moves into Cass & Miami, causing it to weaken.  We will see.  If the flow can catch up to it again, it may pulse back up & rotate for brief tornado potential & produce severe gusts.

This flow will keep that isolated severe risk going through the afternoon-evening for new storms that pop.

With the sunshine out in our southwestern counties & Illinois, Marginal Risk is definite.  If we can destabilize things a little more & storms intensify even more, then an expansion of the Slight Risk could occur. 

The best shear & mid & upper flow nosing in is south of our area, but there is still enough here to bring a few warnings.

The current wave of showers/storms will exit.  New scattered storms will pop in the sunshine in Illinois & increase.  These all may eventually begin to gell together into clusters through evening & pass through our area.

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