Lows this morning ran 50-56 haze, smoke aloft (& a bit at the surface) & some patchy fog.
Highs today ran 76-82 with smoke moving away & fair-weather cumulus clouds popping over the sky..
Next 7 days feature more smoke later in the forecast & decreasing air quality as we heat up, turn humid & continue to dry out. Lawns will be turning brown with time.
There is deeper topsoils & then also good subsoil moisture from the wet period late June to early July, but more & more will be depleted with time & given high evaporation rates for weeks. It will turn quite dry with time in August to September.
So, first things first, cooler weather now will give way to hot, humid weather, followed by a mid-August cool-down.
Following this, hot, humid pattern will dominate (except one small cool-down) the rest of August through early September. We may reach near record heat in early to near mid-September with temperatures way up into the 90s with Abnormally Dry to D1 drought conditions developing quite rapidly.
After September mid-point, sudden Fall will set in with below normal temperatures dominating in latter September.
It may feel like a sort of endless Summer in September before it cools rapidly after September 16.
This is a pretty dry pattern right through September (unless we see a tropical system make it up here).
Thoughts continue to be on a narrow window for a tropical storm or hurricane in August for the U.S., but multiple opportunities for landfalls September-October with emphasis on bigger storm along the East Coast.
Mid-August might have the BEST potential of storms for much of August. The rest of the time, coverage may be isolated to scattered when potential of storms does arise.
The dry soil conditions & vegetation may feedback to make for some very warm times in October & November (compared to normal). There is an elevated potential of a November severe weather episode in this regime.
Overall Trends to Very End of October In This Graph:
I did not go for any month with above normal precipitation until January. In fact, January-April all show a tendency for above normal precipitation.
November looks warmer than normal & the first half of December looks warmer than normal, but the latter half looks quite cold & wintry at this point when it is analogged.