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August 2, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update

Your latest forecast update is here!

Posted: Aug 2, 2021 4:47 PM
Updated: Aug 2, 2021 6:42 PM

Lows this morning ran 50-56 haze, smoke aloft (& a bit at the surface) & some patchy fog.

Highs today ran 76-82 with smoke moving away & fair-weather cumulus clouds popping over the sky..

Next 7 days feature more smoke later in the forecast & decreasing air quality as we heat up, turn humid & continue to dry out.  Lawns will be turning brown with time.

There is deeper topsoils & then also good subsoil moisture from the wet period late June to early July, but more & more will be depleted with time & given high evaporation rates for weeks.  It will turn quite dry with time in August to September.

So, first things first, cooler weather now will give way to hot, humid weather, followed by a mid-August cool-down.

Following this, hot, humid pattern will dominate (except one small cool-down) the rest of August through early September.  We may reach near record heat in early to near mid-September with temperatures way up into the 90s with Abnormally Dry to D1 drought conditions developing quite rapidly.

After September mid-point, sudden Fall will set in with below normal temperatures dominating in latter September.

It may feel like a sort of endless Summer in September before it cools rapidly after September 16.

This is a pretty dry pattern right through September (unless we see a tropical system make it up here).

Thoughts continue to be on a narrow window for a tropical storm or hurricane in August for the U.S., but multiple opportunities for landfalls September-October with emphasis on bigger storm along the East Coast.

Mid-August might have the BEST potential of storms for much of August.  The rest of the time, coverage may be isolated to scattered when potential of storms does arise.

The dry soil conditions & vegetation may feedback to make for some very warm times in October & November (compared to normal).  There is an elevated potential of a November severe weather episode in this regime.

Overall Trends to Very End of October In This Graph:

I did not go for any month with above normal precipitation until January.  In fact, January-April all show a tendency for above normal precipitation.

November looks warmer than normal & the first half of December looks warmer than normal, but the latter half looks quite cold & wintry at this point when it is analogged.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Cases: 934586

Reported Deaths: 15157
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1272871967
Lake629921090
Allen53252749
Hamilton43603446
St. Joseph41729586
Elkhart33340488
Vanderburgh30183442
Tippecanoe26738247
Johnson23466416
Hendricks22102340
Porter21573342
Clark17306227
Madison17213380
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LaPorte14238237
Delaware13977219
Howard13772267
Kosciusko11310135
Hancock10749161
Warrick10616176
Bartholomew10461167
Floyd10375203
Wayne9848219
Grant9017200
Morgan8813159
Boone8351109
Dubois7647123
Henry7536129
Dearborn751787
Noble7369101
Marshall7314128
Cass7140117
Lawrence6913152
Shelby6526108
Jackson651884
Gibson6101106
Harrison601185
Huntington596192
Montgomery5756102
DeKalb568591
Knox5398104
Miami536684
Putnam532067
Clinton530965
Whitley520951
Steuben492867
Wabash480592
Jasper475561
Jefferson466291
Ripley451175
Adams441765
Daviess4105107
Scott400764
White388757
Clay387156
Greene385689
Decatur383496
Wells381683
Fayette371976
Posey358041
Jennings350356
Washington329747
LaGrange318775
Spencer315535
Fountain312354
Randolph309487
Sullivan304047
Owen282461
Starke276662
Orange274459
Fulton274253
Jay253034
Perry249352
Carroll242427
Franklin236737
Vermillion231450
Rush231330
Parke217720
Tipton208355
Pike204538
Blackford167434
Pulaski161751
Crawford144818
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Benton141616
Brown133346
Martin127716
Switzerland124810
Warren114116
Union95511
Ohio78111
Unassigned0473

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