Highs today reached 79-84 with still rather humid conditions in a sky of puffy, towering cumulus. A few showers & t'showers bubbled up with 30% coverage.
A few scattered showers & storms are passing through as of 9:50 p.m., moving eastward.
This is in response to more of the core of the upper trough swinging southward.
These should gradually weaken & diminish after 2 a.m.
Patchy dense fog is possible late with lows in the 60s.
After patchy fog, scattered showers/storms should bubble up Monday afternoon, especially in our southeastern eastern areas, as upper trough/upper low pivots through.
Winds should be light from the west to northwest, then become breezy late from the northwest at 10-25 mph.
With clouds & some sun, highs of 75-82 are likely (coolest in far northwestern areas) with rainfall coverage peaking at 50%.
Any scattered showers/storms should diminish Monday night. Brisk winds turning to the north, then north-northeast should prevent any fog as they will be running 10-15 mph. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s are likely, leading to a cool start to Tuesday.
A few isolated showers are possible Tuesday, otherwise it looks rather breezy from the north-northeast at 10-25 mph with highs only 72-78 (coolest in the northwest). Clouds should be mixed with some sun.
Tuesday night-Wednesday morning looks cool with areas of fog. Lows of 48-55 are likely.
Forecasting 53 for Greater Lafayette. August 5 record low is 47, set in 1912.
Wednesday looks great with lots of sunshine & highs 77-82, followed by clear, calm conditions & areas of fog Wednesday night. Lows of 51-56 are likely. The record low for August 6 is 48 set in 1966.
This will all occur as Tropical Storm, then Tropical Depression Isaias races through the Northeast U.S. with area of torrential rain & strong, gusty winds & then a band of heavy storms pivoting around the center. There will be substantial tornado risk from Delaware & New Jersey, southern New York to Connecticut & Massachusetts, southern Vermont & New Hampshire.
It could very well lead to a localized, regional tornado outbreak for this area with ENHANCED & MODERATE RISK parameters showing up.
Note very impressive hodograph for tornadoes from this model Skew-T near the New York City area late Tuesday afternoon. Wind fields are strong with very sharp turning of winds with height with unstable, tropical airmass as center of Isaias (& the arch of storms right of the center) approaches.
We heat up, get muggy & may have multiple rounds of storms with some severe weather risk (MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK paremeters show up) next weekend to early the following week.
Another similar cool-down should follow in mid-August before we heat up to hot & muggy to oppressive 90s later in August.
After mid-August, I don't see a strong indication of consistently below normal temperatures until mid-September.