August 19, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Severe weather threat, muggy weather & a brief cool-down before another warm up & a longer-duration, substantial cool-down.

Posted: Aug 19, 2019 9:38 PM
Updated: Aug 19, 2019 10:47 PM

Highs today ran 84-91 over the area with peak heat indices reaching 100 in a few places.

Here at WLFI we hit 91 with heat index peaking at 97.  We are normally within a degree of the airport or right on that number, but we have only seen 1.89" of rainfall since June 24.  I think the drier soils are causing a slightly higher temperature here.  The airport has had 3.85" since then!

Note even in the past 30 days, the lack of rainfall over parts of Benton, White & northern Warren to northwestern Tippecanoe counties.

Here at WLFI, we have seen 1.45" of that 1.89" since July 21.  It is still awfully dry, however, despite this short-lived reprieve after 0.40" of rainfall Saturday.

Few isolated to spotty storms are still possible tonight.

I cannot completely rule out a storm that just randomly goes briefly severe (wind, hail), but coverage of the storms in general will only run around 25-30%.

This appears to be an old, weak, remnant, compact MCV triggering these in a muggy, rather unstable airmass.

Otherwise, some patchy fog will develop.

Any storm should diminish by 4 a.m.

Severe storms should blow up in Iowa & evolve into a bow & sink southeastward with widespread damaging straight-line winds.

It is still a bit unclear on where the worst of the bow will track.

It appears that the southwestern 2/3 of the viewing area has the best threat of severe south of a Morocco to Chalmers to Russiaville line.  Currently, threat is still less north & northeast of that line as bow will try to ride gradient of best instability.  They may still get rainfall & thunder/lightning, but severe risk will be a bit southwest of there.

Main threat is wind, though you have to watch or an isolated brief, weak tornado in the comma head of the bow of storms.

Complex will tend to follow the instability of Mixed-Layer CAPE gradient through the area.

Timing is still 1:30 p.m. to 4 p.m.

Some lingering rain & thunder may linger into the east until 6 p.m.

We should see highs of 86-91 just prior to the storms with heat indices peaking at 95-103.

A few showers are possible tomorrow night initially with areas of dense fog developing & a low around 70.

Scattered showers & storms are expected to develop Wednesday as surface cold front sinks southward.

Main severe risk corridor is south of our area, but an isolated severe storm may sneak into the I-74 corridor.

Highs will run in the 80s with muggy conditions.

It should turn cooler & less humid for a bit, followed by the return of muggy & very warm to hot weather by late weekend & next week with the return of showers & storms.

More substantial & longer-duration round of cooler weather will arrive by Labor Day weekend.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
71° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 71°
Kokomo
Few Clouds
59° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 59°
Rensselaer
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Fowler
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 72°
Williamsport
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 72°
Crawfordsville
Clear
71° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 71°
Frankfort
68° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 68°
Delphi
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 70°
Some scattered showers/storms Sunday morning, then drying & some clearing.
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