August 19, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update on tweaks to the forecast based on new data!

Posted: Aug 19, 2021 3:26 PM
Updated: Aug 19, 2021 10:30 PM

After lows this morning of 64-71, highs today reached 85-93.  However, much of the area was 89-92.  Heat indices peaked at 91-106, but they were 95-100 for much of the viewing area.

A few t'showers are still possible through the evening with risk of a funnel.  Any t'shower will be slow-moving, resulting in isolated heavy rainfall.  However, there will be more dry areas than wet & rainfall will vary signficantly over a small distance near these cells.  It will be a situation of one spot gets 1" & 1-2 miles down the road there is little to nothing.

An isolated shower is possible overnight with patchy dense fog & lows 65-71.

A couple to few isolated t'showers are possible tomorrow with highs 88-94 with heat indices 94-106 with a light wind.

Meanwhile, severe weather outbreak will be underway later tomorrow from Kansas to Minnesota & the Dakotas.  Line of severe storms will run from central Missouri to eastern Iowa by 11 p.m.

Wildfire smoke will greatly thin & exit that area, allowing for robust, unfettered severe development.  There may be enough wildfire smoke in the low-levels to increase tornado risk that what is currently seen in that area.  It could result in a localized to regional tornado outbreak in that region.

We will begin to pick up the high clouds blowing off those severe storms tomorrow night with lows near 70 to the lower 70s.

Although the strongest mid & upper wind fields for organized severe storms will be northwest of our area, it still appears a split in the upper & mid-level jets will promote strong rising air motion for storms near our area.

At first, it looked like we would be in-line for these storms, but there is increasing confidence that this developing area/large complex or MCC of heavy storms with some severe risk (thought not risk like the western Corn Belt to Plains & western Great Lakes corridor) will be southwest of us.

We will pick up the overcast from this complex of storms Saturday morning & it is possible that we may have a few spotty storms from Iowa storms' outflow boundary & potential gravity waves interacting between the old Iowa storms & the storm complex southwest of our area.

I went for 30% coverage of showers & storms Saturday morning.

Parameters suggest ENHANCED RISK over a large area west of us Friday PM, then MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK to southern Illinois Friday late night-Saturday morning with flash flooding risk.

We will monitor.

The overcast should then thin & as strong low-level jet veers, complex southwest of us should weaken.  However, a pronounced MCV from it may pop new storms with some severe risk south & southeast of our area Saturday.

For us, cumulus towers should develop as overcast thins & we heat up to 86-91 with heat indices 92-103 Saturday.

Some scattered storms will likely pop with weak surface cold front in eastern Illinois & these will move eastward, impacting us in the late afternoon-evening.

An isolated severe storm is possible.  Parameters do suggest MARGINAL RISK for severe.

As for Sunday, wind should be north to northeast with highs 83-89 with heat indices dropping to 87-95 with a few isolated shower/t'showers possible.

Dangerous heat is possible Monday-Thursday of next week as dew points rise to 77-82 over the area with highs 90-95.  Heat indices of 100-115 are possible.

A couple to few isolated storms are possible Monday-Tuesday, but the timing for more widespread, organized storms is shifting to more mid to late next week.

Two main time frames of storms are possible with parameters suggesting SLIGHT RISK for the area.  Right now, new data suggests that risk would be Wednesday & Thursday PM.

It looks like smoke will be thin enough at this point for the storms to largely be unfettered & free to go up.  However, we will watch prounounced warm cap in Oklahoma to Missouri & make sure it does not migrate too much farther northeastward.

We will also watch for any wildfire smoke in the lower levels & its impacts on the main storm threats.

Brief stint of cooler weather is possible after that followed by overall warmer & drier than normal regime for the first half of September before it is wetter briefly & then we see a cool shot of fall-like weather after September 14.  This, before we heat up again substantially in late September.

On a side note, watch near the Florida area & along the East Coast for tropical storms & hurricanes.

In the meantime, "Henri" (west of Bermuda) looks to be shifting track a bit more west.  So, rather than a Nova Scota impact, it appears that it may bring Massachusetts to Maine to Nova Scota impacts by very late weekend to early next week.  NHC has it as a hurricane up to near Nantucket, then weakens it to tropical storm at this point.

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 37° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 21°
Kokomo
Cloudy
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Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
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Fowler
Clear
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
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Delphi
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Monticello
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 35° Lo: 20°
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Logansport
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Hi: 35° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 18°
Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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