A cluster of severe storms in Iowa will evolve into an MCS with a bow & comma head with widespread damaging straight-line winds as it moves southeastward late tonight through tomorrow morning.
Here, there is an ENHANCED RISK of severe weather south of a Morocco to Monticello to Kokomo line with MARGINAL & SLIGHT RISK northeast of that line.
There is a bit of uncertainty on the exact, to-a-t track of the complex of severe storms. It is dependent upon on where the main instability gradient sets up between 1500-2000 J CAPE & +3500 CAPE.
At the moment, it appears that the severe weather (wind) risk would tend to follow that ENHANCED RISK area.
It will likely track southeastward, but as labeled in the graphic, may turn more to the south there over eastern & southeastern Indiana.
It should affect the viewing area in the 1:30-4 p.m. time frame from west/northwest to southeast.
We will likely see a temperature surge to 87-92 ahead of the line of storms with heat index peaking at 97-105.
Areas of dense fog may then develop tomorrow night with some scattered showers/storms developing Wednesday as cold front sinks southward. Isolated severe storm or two looks possible, but it does not look like the set up we will have tomorrow. Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.
South-southwest winds at 10-15 mph will turn to the west, then northwest afternoon to evening.
Wednesday will still be hot & muggy with highs 87-91 with heat indices 96-103.
Low clouds, some fog & some lingering showers are possible Wednesday night with lows 60-64.
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