August 19, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest outlook from now, right through September.

Posted: Aug 19, 2019 11:31 AM
Updated: Aug 19, 2019 1:40 PM

A few storms are possible this afternoon-evening.  An isolated severe storm is possible (wind &/or hail).

It will be hot & muggy with highs 89-93 & heat indices 96-104.

A couple isolated storms are possible overnight with lows 68-72.

Meanwhile, a complex of severe storms will blow up in Iowa tonight & will evolve into an organized damaging wind event with a distinct bow & comma head by late morning Tuesday over central Illinois.  Latest data suggests that the line may be along I-57 by around noon tomorrow.  Main threat is wind.

A secondary complex of storms will develop in Minnesota & move into Wisconsin.

Current analysis suggests an early afternoon passes of the bow of storms with scattered severe gusts possible, especially southwest of a Morocco to Remington to Monon to Logansport to Kokomo line.

Depending on where the best instability gradient resides, there is the potential for the bow to turn more south than southeast, keeping the better severe risk southwest of the viewing area.

There are still also questions on exact timing or whether the bow maintains its strength or weakens, then re-intensifies over part of our area.

We will monitor.

Highs will run in the muggy 80s to approaching 90 prior to the storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has the area largely in MARGINAL RISK for severe weather with SLIGHT RISK on the western fringe.

I am thinking SLIGHT RISK (possible up to ENHANCED) may be expanded eastward unless it looks more & more like the bow will turn more to the south than southeast.  Again, it will all be dependent upon where the instability gradient between 3500 J/kg of ML CAPE & 1500 J/kg ML CAPE sets up as it moves through central Illinois.

Some models suggests not storms develop Wednesday.

I find this hard to believe.

I think ahead of & along the surface cold front, scattered showers & storms will develop.

An isolated severe storm is possible with muggy highs in the 80s to near 90.

A few spotty showers/t'showers are possible Thursday with cooler highs at 80-85 with slightly less humid air.

Friday & Saturday look good with 77-84 Friday & 81-86 Saturday with low humidity & sunshine with some clouds.  Overnight lows in the 50s are likely.

Off & on showers/storms are likely Sunday-Thursday (of next week) with muggy weather & highs in the 80s to the 90s & lows in the 60s & 70s.

Some severe weather risk may evolve next Wednesday & Thursday.

Currently, Labor Day weekend looks good with highs in the 70s to 80 with lows near 50 to the 50s.

After next Thursday, August 29, it does not look like much, if any, rainfall until around September 6.

Latter August temperatures overall (even with bit of cooler weather later this week to Saturday & cooler Labor Day weekend)....

Latter August rainfall anomalies........wetter than normal.....

Early half of September averages out a bit cooler than normal......though some data is looking less aggressive with the cooler than normal temperatures........

It looks quite chilly northwest of us & quite southeast of us.

Latter September looks a bit warmer than normal......

I think rainfall will average near normal for September with above normal rainfall mainly northwest of us & below normal rainfall southeast of us.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Nice, very warm to hot weather to continue.
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