August 17, 9:31 PM: Second Installment of the Fall-Winter-Early Spring Trends

Here are the lows & highs for today & a look at the second installment of the Winter-Early Spring trends. First official forecast will be out in September. We will dig into fall then too & I'll analog fall Sunday & put that up on the blog.

Posted: Aug 17, 2018 9:32 PM
Updated: Aug 18, 2018 12:53 AM

Highs today ran 77-84 after lows of 66-72 this morning.

ANALOG TRENDS:

This is not an official forecast, but shows you a blend of similar years & what commonality they have in terms of temperature & precipitation deviations from normal. 

This shows what analog data suggested in the June outlook & in the latest outlook.

We've got an unusually cool to cold Atlantic, a very warm eastern Pacific, a developing El Nino Modoki with low solar output (lack of sunspots) with likely dominant eastward phase of the QBO..........all tends to point to colder & snowier than normal winter, but an overall below normal precipitation regime.

Analogs suggest warm December initially, then big change late month with consistent below normal temperatures January, February & March & considerable blocking by ridging south of Greenland & again over the Pacific Northwest & Alaska.  

Analogs suggest cold perhaps like the 2013-14 & 2014-15 winters with many below zero nights here with snow deep into the southern U.S. & major snows on the East Coast.  Meanwhile, unsually dry, mild to warm weather would give the Pacific Northwest a lack of gray weather (due issues with lack of rainfall),

It is odd that this analog package focuses more int he way of rainfall on California.  Usually El Nino Modokis shift it a bit farther north.

WINTER TO EARLY SPRING 2018-19 (JANUARY-MARCH)

December-January-February 2018-19 temperatures as a whole:

First projection from back in June:

New projection based on newer data August 18:

December-January-February 2018-19 precipitation as a whole:

First projection from back in June:

New projection based on newer data August 18:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

DECEMBER 2018

December 2018 temperatures as a whole:

First projection from back in June:

New projection based on newer data August 18:

December 2018 precipitation as a whole:

First projection from back in June:

New projection based on newer data August 18:

___________________________________________________________________________________

JANUARY 2019

January 2019 temperature as a whole:

First projection from back in June:

New projection based on new data from August 18:

January 2019 precipitation as a whole:

New projection from the newest data from August 18:

_________________________________________________________________________________

FEBRUARY 2019

February temperatures as a whole:

First projection from back in June:

New projection based on newer data August 18:

February precipitation as a whole:

First projection back in June:

New projection based on August 18:

_________________________________________________________________________________

MARCH 2019

March temperatures as a whole:

First projection back in June:

New projection based on August 18:

\

March precipitation overall:

First projection back in June:

Newest projection as of August 18:

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Hotter & turning much more humid for the weekend.
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