August 17, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update

Your latest forecast update is now up!

Posted: Aug 17, 2021 1:54 PM
Updated: Aug 17, 2021 9:26 PM

After lows of 61-66 this morning, highs today have reached 81-89 with a few spotty t'showers around.  Max heat indices varied from 86-97.  The highest dew point measured of any weather observation site in the area was Fowler with a peak of 77, which is oppressive.  It peaked at 74 at the Purdue Airport. 

Weak upper trough originating in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will pivot overhead now to Thursday.  A few spotty showers & t'showers will pop with it with an average of 30% coverage.

Given the high vorticity with the upper trough with CAPE & muggy, tropical air focused near the surface stretching that spinning motion of the air parcels, it is not out of the question that we see a couple/few rope funnels develop Wednesday-Thursday.  Most will just be brief funnels & not be a cause for much concern.  However, you still need to have it in the back of your head that rarely one of these funnels touches down as a landspout with brief, light damage to crops, trees or roof shingles, farm buildings.

This, with patchy fog tonight & tomorrow night & lows 65-71 with highs in the 84-90 range.  Daily heat indices will tend to reach 89-97.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will move through the Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic to New England (with continued flash flooding & risk of isolated tornadoes), then race northeastward to Newfoundland.  So, Fred will NOT be the hurricane that impacts Bermuda.  That hurricane ("Henri") is a completely different system that will impact Bermuda, then could skim by the southern areas of Nova Scotia with rain & wind before racing out into the North Atlantic, becoming extratropical (just a strong mid-latitude low pressure system).

"Grace" will become a hurricane & hit northern Mexico. 

Meanwhile, in our area, we see a very warm to hot & muggy Friday with highs 87-92 with heat indices 92-99.

It looks partly cloudy with a light south wind.

Strong storm system will pivot from Montana to Manitoba with parameters suggestive of severe weather outbreak from Minnesota to Iowa.  Widespread smoke will exist in this area at the time.  If it is too thick, then capping may inhibit storm development & coverage.  However, storms that do develop pose wind threat, but also, if the smoke can concentrate at the lower levels, then localized tornado outbreak is possible.

In our area, it still looks like some showers & storms Friday night-Saturday morning.  Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK to SLIGHT RISK for our region or Level 1-2.

Saturday will tend to turn slightly less humid & just a hair cooler with a northwest wind after weak surface cold front goes through.  Skies look partly cloudy with highs 84-88 & heat indices 86-90.

As for Sunday, front will tend to move back northward as a warm front & the wind will turn back to the southeast, then south.  It will tend to turn more humid, especially later in the day.  Highs of 85-90 are likely with heat indices 88-95.  With the surface warm front coming back northward, I included 20% coverage of storms for the afternoon & evening that day.

It appears that risk of storms for Sunday night-Monday morning is shifting more to Monday afternoon-evening.  Also, it appears that that third & final risk for wave of storms is trending for Tuesday afternoon-evening.

There will be wildfire smoke around, but thickness is unclear & the depth of that smoke is unclear.  This is important to storm coverage & intensity & any sort of tornado risk that can evolve.

Current parameters suggest SLIGHT RISK for Monday afternoon-evening & Tuesday afternoon-evening for severe weather.

Highs should reach near 90 to 95 with heat indices 95-103 with south winds blowing.

Monday PM features up to 3000 J/kg of deep ML CAPE with up to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE Tuesday PM for storms. 

Although the strongest wind fields & greatest bulk shear for severe weather will be northwest & north of our area Monday & Tuesday, we will be in a region of diffluence or strong rising air motion.  This is due to split in upper & mid-level jets creating a vacuum forcing the air upward as second rather strong storm system pivots through the Montana to Dakotas to Manitoba corridor.

Meanwhile, Idaho to Saskatchewan to Manitoba will see fire threat greatly diminish with cooler, wetter weather.  However, an all-out fire storm is likely from British Columbia through Washington, Oregon & California with intense heat & strong winds blowing from land to sea.  In the process, they will strengthen, the air will dry out & heat up as it is compressed downslope from the Cascades, Sierra Nevada & Coast Ranges.

After heat & humidity a brief, but pronounced cool-down will occur later next week before we heat up once again.

The first half of September looks warmer & drier than normal (potential of a brief stint at near/record warmth day &/or night), but after a round of storms mid-month, a significant cool-down is expected.  We may not warm up back above normal again until late in September after that. 

In terms of tropical storms & hurricanes, thoughts continue to focus on potential of system to impact Gulf Coast late month to then focus on Florida & all along the East Coast through September.

It should remain active in the southern Gulf & Yucatan to Carribbean & even Atlantic well into October.

We are trending warmer & drier than normal overall in October.

Wildcard at any point would be the tropics & if we can somehow get a tropical system up into our area to bring widespread rainfall.

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
33° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 21°
Kokomo
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 37° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 21°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 19°
Fowler
Mostly Cloudy
33° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 21°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
33° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 21°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 22°
Frankfort
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 22°
Delphi
Mostly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 21°
Monticello
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 21°
Logansport
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 20°
A windy and chilly day is expected. Tonight could be the coldest night of the season so far.
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