August 17, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Very warm to hot & humid with storms at times.

Posted: Aug 17, 2019 12:39 PM
Updated: Aug 17, 2019 3:31 PM

A few storms lastnight passed & a gust of 60 mph was reported from Demotte with tree limbs downed.  Peotone, Illinois spotters reported gusts of 63 & 75 mph (southeastern Will County, Illinois)

Showers/storms have been moving through this morning-midday.  Some severe weather (60 mph gusts & 1" hail) has occurred just south of the area.

MCV from the complex of heavy, severe storms (MCS) west of us lastnight, is now on the move eastward.

Rain will end soon, followed by some thinning clouds.  Note the sun appearing in central Illinois.  These breaks in the clouds are moving eastward.

Once some sun appears, a few new storms may fire late this afternoon to this evening & into the early overnight.

An isolated severe storms are possible.

After this rainfall, once some sun appears, it will turn steamy & very warm to hot.

Note all of the complexes of severe storms blowing up west of us tonight to early Sunday morning.

Sunday is tricky.

Either morning storms hold together & move through from the west, then it turns drier in the afternoon.

Or, storms collapse as they arrive & their outflow boundary/MCV pops new storms in the heart or over eastern parts of the viewing area by afternoon.

Or storms roll through area in the AM with severe weather accompanying them (wind).

Or, storms completely collapse in Illinois & the outflow boundary/MCV from those pops line of new storms over our western fringe of the area midday-afternoon that sweeps the entire viewing area.

So, will word it as some storms potentially occurring in the morning & again the afternoon with at least isolated severe risk (wind, hail) currently.  Potential is there for upgrade to SLIGHT RISK for Sunday afternoon if storms really get going & it really heats up.

Went for very warm to hot, oppressive highs of 88-91 with heat indices 96-102 currently.

Thoughts are that any storms Monday would be isolated, as outflow boundary from Sunday storms would tend to fire new storms south of I-70.

So, went for 20% coverage & highs 90-94 Monday with heat indices 97-103 with sunshine & some clouds.

Couple/multiple complexes (MCSs) of storms are likely Tuesday-Wednesday with some isolated to scattered severe risk possible & very warm to hot & oppressive weather.

It does appear that strong upper trough swinging through New England will cause hot upper ridge southwest of us to contract & we should turn cooler & less humid & dry for Thursday with highs 77-83 with lows 54-59.

However, front will migrate back northward at the end of the week to next weekend. 

We should heat up again, turn muggy & storms should return.

Much cooler weather should arrive as we move into the Labor Day weekend.

We will go then from this in latter August...........(temperature anomalies)............. this in early September..........

This continues right into mid-September.........

Temperatures in the latter half of September return above normal.

Latter August rainfall is above normal...........

Overall September rainfall still looks a bit above normal with much of the country other than the Southeast & Pacific Northwest seeing above normal rainfall.

In our viewing area, currently, the early part looks drier than normal with latter part wetter than normal.

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Cloudy And Cool For Sunday
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