Severe T'Storm Watch is up for outflow boundary from morning storms in the north re-firing new storms with MCV centered over southern Michigan.
Storms will tend to fire the most from Peru to Frankfort to Ladoga & eastward on this boundary.
That is the corridor that has the severe risk in our area (wind, isolated hail).
Westward, risk is lower.
However, the western half is not completely out of the woods for today-this evening.
Once these new storms on the outflow boundary pull away over the next few hours, a remnant MCV with another outflow boundary will pivot through.
It has high & mid-level debri cloudiness, but cumulus towers are noted on the south side of the MCV near where Iowa, Missouri & Illinois state boundaries meet.
This may pop a few new storms by late afternoon to evening. Isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out (wind, hail) for the rest of the area.
These storms will eventually pull away overnight.
A few isolated to spotty storms are possible tomorrow, but the better coverage will develop south of our area. Overall storm coverage looks low, but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.
It will be hot & humid with highs 89-93 with heat indices 96-105.
I am leary of this idea of a lack of much storm action for Tuesday. There is an MCV that is forecast to pivot through from remnants of MCS well to our northwest Monday evening-night.
Given the highly-unstable environment, not necessarily much capping & highs of 90-93 with heat indices 97-105, it makes sense for storms to fire.
Given the heating & the MCV-induced local shear, severe risk of at least MARGINAL is likely. A SLIGHT RISK would surprise me if this scenario does develop with an MCS or complex of storms with a line on the front of it developing.
Thoughts are that it will be in the afternoon-evening, but if the MCS Monday night would fire farther southeast or east, it could hang on & pass here Tuesday morning.
We will see, but be aware of storm risk Tuesday, even though some models are not showing that at all.
Some storms are possible Wednesday with actual cold front, followed by cooler, less humid weather Thursday at 77-84 with lows 54-58.
Front will move back northward as a warm front with very warm to hot & humid weather returning next weekend with storms likely with some severe risk.
From latter August temperatures anomalies............(warmer than normal overall)......
.......to early September anomalies........(cooler than normal overall).....
- August 18, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 18, 9:45 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 18 Storm Updates
- August 30, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 21, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 27, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 20, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 24, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 27, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 7, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update