SEVERE WX : Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

August 15, 4:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Very warm to hot & humid weather with occasional showers & storms.

Posted: Aug 15, 2019 3:49 PM
Updated: Aug 15, 2019 5:17 PM

A couple/few isolated showers/t'showers are still possible this evening before fading.  Given the vorticity, an isolated funnel is possible.

Cumulus clouds will eventually dissipate, but high & mid clouds will begin to increase from the west. 

This will increase as decaying Iowa/Missouri/Nebraska/Kansas corners MCS (with a well-formed MCV) tracks east-southeastward.

So as that one diminishes, new ones will fire after sunset.

All will bring increasing & thickening clouds to our area overnight.

So, some patchy fog may develop initially tonight, but as clouds continue to increase & thicken, that fog will tend to diminish with time.

Lows tonight will run 57-64, then rise as the clouds come in to 61-66.

Friday morning to midday, the bulk of the rain/storms will stay southwest of our area, but some showers & isolated storms are possible here.

They should be out of here by early afternoon though.  I went for an average of 40% rainfall coverage.

Some sun will then appear & it will be muggy with temperatures rising to 81-85.

New storms should re-fire here or just west of here either early Friday evening or into the night-time hours.

These will impact part of the viewing area with the potential of an isolated severe storm.  Areas that do get these storms may see locally-heavy rainfall.

All of the storms may gell into a large MCS & track east-southeastward.  Another may fire in Iowa/Nebraska.

Bulk of it will be just south of our area, but part of the viewing area will still see rain & storms from it.

There may be a few lingering showers/storms around early Saturday, followed by a break with clouds/sun, rather breezy conditions & muggy weather with temperatures climbing to 85-90 with heat indices 91-99.

Saturday late afternoon-evening is a bit unclear, but it appears that the potential is there for a remnant MCV pivoting in from the west to bring some renewed storms development.  Confidence is not high on the details, but potential there.

If this occurs, given unstable, muggy environment & localized shear with MCV, an isolated severe storm or two is possible.

As this occurs an MCS should fire in Nebraska & South Dakota.

This will influence Sunday's weather as we turn to 88-93 with heat indices of 96-102 with breezy conditions. 

This hot, unstable environment with potential MCV & outflow boundary from that MCS, will likely spark new storms in the area in the afternoon-evening.  A couple/few isolated severe storms are on the table.

Confidence is not very high on timing & details of storms, but just know that the weekend will be muggy & juicy with opportunities for storms, which could produce isolated severe weather if they form at the right times.  Best severe weather risk will reside west of here, but we have those opportunities for isolated severe.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible in the heaviest storms.

Off/on MCSs, MCS remnants & new storms development from old MCS MCVs &/or outflow boundaries will keep risk of storms around off & on next week, right into next weekend.

Timing of each period of some storms will vary.

Best wind fields aloft for more severe will be well north & northwest of our area, but isolated severe risk could develop here at times.

Each day next week & next weekend look muggy to oppressive with highs of 88-94 dominating with lows 68-72.

Daily heat indices will run in the 90s & 100s.

At times, MCS or storms will keep it cloudy for part of the middays & afternoons, which may hold down the temperature some, but timing of that & who would be held down is unclear in this pattern.  It will be muggy out, regardless.

At least there are opportunties for good, soaking rainfall.

In this entire hot, muggy period of August 17-29, we will definitely tie enough consecutive 90 ot +90 days together to make for the "heat wave" wording.

Hot upper ridge may shove the main MCS/MCV/overall storm track northward August 27-28, keeping any storms quite isolated.

Strong cold front & an upper trough will break the hot, muggy pattern at the end of August with lots of showers & storms (with locally-heavy rainfall) with potential of some severe risk here.

Tropical airmass will reside ahead of the front & upper trough with very uncomfortable, oppressive weather here.

Given wetter soils & tropical moisture & air, highs of 89-94 are likely with dew points 74-78 with heat indices continued high near 100 to +100.

From these hot temperature anomalies in latter August.............. this pattern of cooler than normal temperaturs in the early part of September.

Cooler than normal pattern looks to dominate to mid-September.

Latter September temperatures should begin to average above normal as upper ridging develops in the East & Southeast.

Rainfall should average above normal for the rest of August as a whole here.

September shows a tendency for the month to average a bit above normal rainfall-wise.

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