Lows this morning were cool & comfortable at 51-58.
Highs today reached 77-82 with a refreshing east-northeast wind.
With clouds/sun & slight increase in the humidity (with east winds 9-15 mph & dew points up to 60-65) Monday, a couple isolated showers (20% coverage) are possible with highs 78-85.
This, after partly to mostly cloudy skies & Monday morning lows of 58-65.
After lows 61-66 with a couple isolated showers Tuesday morning, a few spotty showers/t'showers are possible Tuesday afternoon-evening with 30% coverage. Winds will turn more to the south-southeast at 4-9 mph.
Highs of 81-86 are likely, but it will feel more like 84-90.
It will turn humid to muggy with dew points surging to 68-72.
A few more spotty t'showers are expected Wednesday (30% coverage) with highs 83-88 & dew points 68-74. So, it will feel more like 87-93. Winds will be south-southwest at 6-11 mph.
This, after morning lows of 64-69.
The progression of Tropical Storm Fred at & after landfall Monday late to Tuesday night:
Thursday currently looks dry with partly cloudy skies & highs 87-91 with heat indices 91-96. Winds will be south-southwest at 8-14 mph.
As rather strong storm system pivots through the Northern Plains (bringing welcoming nice, cool shot with showers to fire-plagued Montana & Idaho), a wave of storms is possible here Friday night-Saturday morning.
Strongest wind fields at all levels for organized, widespread severe weather will be placed well northwest of our area. However, split between upper & mid-level jets will focus diffluence for strong rising motion for storms Iowa & Missouri to Indiana.
This, over very warm, muggy to hot, unstable airmass does support MARGINAL to potentially SLIGHT RISK parameters (though parameters for higher severe weather risk are farther north).
Wildfire smoke is a wildcard. If an especially thick smoke plume comes in (which is possible after lack of any smoke early in the week) & caps us strongly, then storm development & risk would be inhibited to a large degree.
Saturday RIGHT NOW looks dry after the morning with 85-90 with heat indices 90-95. 88-93 is expected Sunday with heat indices 93-99 with storms possible Sunday night with MARGINAL to potentially SLIGHT RISK parameters.
The next potential of rainfall would be August 23-25. It does not look sufficient for any severe risk exceeding MARGINAL at this time as the main wind fields will be way northwest & north of our area. We will monitor, however.
It gets cooler after that for a stint with dry weather before it heats up to end August & move into early September.
We will monitor the tropics closely, but after Grace, there is only one tropical storm or hurricane seen & that would tend to track toward Mexico or southern Texas it appears UNTIL after August 28 when the Carolinas will need to be monitored.
Big uptick in tropical activity will occur in September with eyes more on the East Coast & Florida than the Gulf at the moment.
Above normal temperatures should dominate for the end of August to early September & then even continue to as late as September 13.
Some brief near/record warmth cannot even be ruled out with temperatue WAAAYY up into the 90s. 100s will be common in the Plains & even as far east as Arkansas to Kentucky.
We could get close or hit 100 in a few pockets in the area!
Amount of smoke & just how dry soils will get will determine just how hot we can get here, but it could very well be equal for those two times of 95-100 dominating the area back in June.
However, it still appears it will turn cooler than normal & feel more like Fall (especially at night) after September 13.
After cooler weather, there are signs warmer than normal weather returns as we end September & move into October.
Dryness is the trend in September for our region.
Wildcard is the tropics. If we sneak in tropical remnants & get 2-4" of rainfall, for example, things will end up differently.
Thoughts are that the main area of heavier rainfall from tropical systems will be Florida to parts of the East Coast.