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August 14, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Few showers/storms with Marginal Risk of severe & more heat, humidity & storm risk ahead.

Posted: Aug 14, 2019 3:16 PM
Updated: Aug 14, 2019 4:22 PM

A couple of pics of the funnels seen from southeast of Battle Ground to south of Flora to Burlington & north of Forest. 

The one just south of Flora was reportedly very close to the ground.  One eyewitness said it was literally just 100-200' about the corn.

David Windhorst:

Lori Cripe:

Temperatures are in the 80s with dew points in the 60s to 70.

With the heating & cooler temperatures aloft, low-level lapse rates have become steep (big temperature difference between surface & a few thousand feet). 

With upper disturbance pivoting southeastward from northern Illinois, pockets of good vorticity or spin of the air parcels has developed.

Also areas of surface convergence have forced up a few showers & storms.

The vorticity with the instability & steepening low-level lapse rates along convergence zones (with 60s to 70 dew points) have been key in producing the funnels in the area.

This, with the unstable, heated airmass & some Effective Bulk Shear, has resulted in elevated parameters for isolated severe weather.

All these factors mentioned have also resulted in a bit of elevated risk of a brief, weak tornado or two this afternoon-evening.

An isolated hailer &/or strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out from any storm that can really pulse up, but peak coverage here will run at just 30%.

Storms will lack any supercell structure & will tend to be pretty low-topped, but but parameters are such to warranted the wording & the MARGINAL RISK of severe from the Storm Prediction Center.

There is the SPC MARGINAL RISK for severe for part of the area.

HRRR model through the evening:

Watch for areas of dense fog tonight with lows 58-64.

Clouds will bubble up tomorrow with isolated showers & t'showers with 80-85.  It will still be a bit humid with dew points in the 60s.

A few funnels are possible given the vorticity & steep low-level lapse rates.

After areas of dense fog tomorrow night (lows 56-63), clouds will increase Friday with 80-85 & high humidity returning (dew points to 68-72 by evening). 

A few showers are possible in the afternoon, followed by a few storms in the evening to the night-time hours.

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