August 14, 10:45 AM Weather Forecast Update

Foggy morning, some showers/storms & return of hot, humid weather before big cool-down.

Posted: Aug 14, 2019 9:53 AM
Updated: Aug 14, 2019 10:47 AM

After a cool chunk of June, the heat in July got our Growing Degree Days up to normal to just slightly above, which continues now.

This is getting this late-planted corn & soybean crop growing & maturing at a steady rapid pace.

We need the rain & warmth to get it maturing & filling out before first frost & freeze.

July was warmer than normal, mean temperature-wise.

The first near two weeks of August have average slightly-below normal mean temperature-wise.  Recent warmer, more humid weather has cut the deficit that developed in the first 8-10 days of the month.

After areas of dense fog this morning, clouds will build today with a few scattered showers & storms developing.

Given the cold air aloft, CAPE & vorticity & shear, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, mainly over the northeast part of the viewing area.  Isolated wind &/or hailer or a brief, EF0 tornado is possible.

It will still be humid with highs 80-85.

SPC has the MARGINAL RISK up for our northeast along & north of a Morocco to Monon to Logansport to Grissom ARB line & northward.

Areas of dense fog are likely tonight with visibility below 0.25 mile in many areas with lows 58-62.

Building clouds & a few isolated showers will follow tomorrow with 79-83 with slightly lower humidity by afternoon.

Given the vorticity, a few funnels are possible with some of the showers.  Rarely do these types touch down.  If they would, it would be a brief, weak landspout.

Areas of dense fog are likely Friday morning with lows in the 50s, followed by increasing skies & highs 79-84. 

After a drop in the humidity initially, it will resurge Friday afternoon & turn humid.

Showers/storms will be decaying as they move eastward, so we will mainly get the leftover clouds from these Friday late morning through afternoon, though a couple of isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Thinking that Friday evening to the night-time hours, a few new scattered storms may re-develop as low-level jet strengthens & nudges into area.  This, with muggy conditions & the transport of higher CAPE northeastward may bring 30% coverage of storms.

By early Saturday morning, an organized complex of storms or MCS will likely be over eastern Iowa & moving into northwestern Illinois. 

This will likely decay & collapse with time, but we will pick up some of its cloudiness & its outflow boundary & MCV may pop some new storms in our area Saturday afternoon-evening.  Isolated severe risk may develop.  Highs of 85-90 are likely with muggy conditions (heat indices 90-97).

By early Sunday morning, another MCS will be lined up west of us, likely from southern Iowa, through Missouri.

This should weaken & decay as it moves eastward, but the outflow boundary & MCV may serve as a trigger for storms downstream into our area by afternoon with highs 89-93 with muggy conditions (heat indices 96-101). 

Isolated severe risk may develop.

Some storms are still possible Monday along weak cold front.

Next week looks overall increasingly hot & humid with heat continuing until near August 30 followed by round of organized storms, then sharp turn to cooler weather as we move into Labor Day weekend.

Note the intense heat with the temperature anomalies from eastern Canada, through our area to Oklahoma in late August:

Note on the heels of the heat, the much cooler air rushing south & southeastward in the Plains.

In this transition we are looking at storms & severe risk, then the cooler weather that will bring refreshment as we exit August & move into Labor Day weekend!

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