August 14, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the weather low-down now to November.

Posted: Aug 14, 2021 9:03 PM
Updated: Aug 15, 2021 2:04 PM

I will be posting pictures from the Alaska trip soon!  Stay tuned!

After lows of 55-62 this morning, highs today reached 79-85 with lower humidity.

It was a dry Saturday with northeast winds blowing.  The lack of widespread rainfall & recent intense heat has really dried things out.  After the very wet weather June 25-July 5 & brief spurt in late July, much of the time since July 5 has been pretty dry.

Hot, dry weather has caused Abnormally Dry or D0 conditions to return to the area.

The tropics are ramping up as Saharan dust clears & MJO enters favorable phases (Phase 2 right now) for tropical development (yes, what is occurring in the Indian Ocean & western Pacific can have big impact on what is happening in the Gulf, Caribbean & Atlantic).

Upper trough in western Gulf appears to be negatively affecting Fred at the moment, but once that ejects to the northeast, the system should re-strengthen.

After landfall here, what is left of Fred may actually re-strengthen & actually become a hurricane that hits near or at Bermuda.

Grace will encounter a lot of land from Hispanola to Cuba & also shear on the track, which will all work on tearing it apart badly.  It may barely be hanging on by the time it reaches western Cuba, but will then likely re-strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico.

After a few patchy clouds tonight, high clouds will tend to increase tomorrow with all the sunshine.  These will be high & some mid clouds coming up from the south with potentially a few developing scattered cumulus humils clouds.   Lows tonight will drop to 53-58, followed highs of 78-84 tomorrow.

With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies later Sunday night-Monday, a couple to a few showers are possible.  Winds will tend to be light out of the northeast, then increase to 9-15 mph by late Monday afternoon from the east in respone to a warm front lifting northward.  This will all be tied to "Fred" moving northward whose flow will pull the warm front northward.  Also, part of that upper trough in the western Gulf will be moving way northward, too.  This all points to some scattered storm potential developing here.

Lows tomorrow night will drop to 59-65, followed by highs of 78-84 Monday.  The humidity (dew points) will rise a bit (dew points rising from 50-58 to 55-62).

Warm front will lift northward, bringing higher dew points of 67-71 Tuesday (humid to muggy) with southeast to south-southeast winds 10-15 mph & highs 83-88.  It will feel more like 87-92.

Some scattered showers are possible Tuesday morning, followed by sun bubbling up cumulus towers & some scattered storms Tuesday afternoon-evening.  Coverage will peak at 45-50% late Tuesday afternoon at peak heating.

The core of the "Fred" remnants will move through Tennessee & Kentucky however.

The warm front will shift WAY north in response to strong storm system shifting from the Rockies to the Plains.  This process of the warm front moving toward Canada may still bring a few storms Wednesday with 30% coverage & very warm, muggy highs of 86-90 with heat indices 90-96 & lows 68-72.

As the storm pivots through Wyoming to Manitoba, three shortwaves pivot through our area Thursday-Saturday morning in response to this upper trough pivoting through the Plains.

We will be in a very warm to hot, muggy, breezy regime with highs 87-92 & lows 68-74 with daily heat indices of 92-98.

The best wind fields for organized severe weather will be placed from the Dakotas to Minnesota & northern Wisconsin.

The only time I see us potentially getting more than a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather might be Thursday when the farther south of any of the shortwaves pivots through. 

So, that could feature a bit of SLIGHT RISK making it in here, but Friday to Saturday morning all show evidence of MARGINAL RISK for severe weather as multi-cell storms occur & occasionally develop into lines & clusters.

Not everyone will get the rainfall either.  Coverage will trend to run 40-50% Thursday-Saturday morning as the shortwaves pass & there will be dry time in-between.

Obviously, timing of the shortwaves & storms development is unclear at this time, but these are the days.

Big story with this storm system is the nice, refreshing amount of cool air that will come into Idaho & Montana.  Temperatures will actually be BELOW NORMAL, which will greatly help the wildfire situation in an area that has been incredibly hot for months.  In fact, these will likely be the largest below normal temperature anomalies (10 degrees below normal) in many months.

However, there are still more rounds of heat & fire danger from Washington to California with offshore winds at times & more fires right to September.  Areas farther northeastward will finally get a break for a time.

The rest of next Saturday looks dry with 80s & a slight decrease in the humidity with a light wind.  This is in response to weak cold frontal passage from that storm system.

It then looks dry & increasingly hot & humid with upper 80s to lower 90s returning & heat indices returning to lower 90s to mid & upper 90s.

After August 21, the next potential of rainfall would be around August 24 or 25.  It does not look sufficient for any severe risk exceeding MARGINAL at this time as the main wind fields will be way northwest & north of our area.

It gets cooler after that for a stint with dry weather before it heats up to end August & move into early September.

We will monitor the tropics closely, but after Grace, there is only one tropical storm or hurricane seen & that would tend to track toward Mexico or southern Texas it appears UNTIL after August 28 when the Carolinas will need to be monitored.

Big uptick in tropical activity will occur in September with eyes more on the East Coast & Florida than the Gulf at the moment.

Above normal temperatures should dominate for the end of August to early September & then even continue to as late as September 13.

Some brief near/record warmth cannot even be ruled out.

However, it still appears it will turn cooler than normal & feel more like Fall (especially at night) after September 13.

After cooler weather, there are signs warmer than normal weather returns as we end September & move into October.

Dryness is the trend in September for our region.

Wildcard is the tropics.  If we sneak in tropical remnants & get 2-4" of rainfall, for example, things will end up differently.

Thoughts are that the main area of heavier rainfall from tropical systems will be Florida to parts of the East Coast.

October & November look drier & warmer than normal overall.

Data & analogs still point to warmer than normal first half of December & colder than normal second half with above normal precipitation overall.

Hopefully as the colder air comes in after the December mid-point, we see the above normal precipitation trend bring us a white Christmas! 

Trend continues for warmer than normal first half of January melting any snow away rapidly with mild weather & rain, followed by a colder than normal second half of January overall.

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Feels Like: 25°
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Williamsport
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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Ohio93313
Unassigned0599

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