August 13, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on rainfall potential & hot, humid weather ahead.

Posted: Aug 13, 2019 2:58 PM
Updated: Aug 13, 2019 5:08 PM

Rainfall the past few days has added to 1-3" over our northern counties.

Less has fallen in the south.

Many areas of the Midwest have picked up +4".

Up to 9.5" fell east of St. Louis yesterday with widespread flash flooding.

Flash flooding occurred near Fort Wayne with up to 5" of rain fall yesterday.

In our area, the northern Jasper, Newton & parts of White & Cass to Miam counties saw the greatest amounts of rainfall yesterday morning to last night.

Who has seen the least amount, not only in the past couple of days, but past 7?  Parts of Benton & western Tippecanoe counties.  Some of those areas have seen very little.

No severe weather was reported.  That all occurred southwest of our area.

Central Cass County was one area that saw greatly-beneficial rainfall with 2.24" measured at the Cass County Airport yesterday to last night.

Today & into the evening, a few spotty showers/t'showers are possible.

Then, areas of dense fog are likely overnight with areas of low clouds & lows in the 61-66 range.

Tomorrow still looks humid with fog & low clouds breaking, allowing for cumulus & stratocumulus towers to build.  Some scattered showers/t'showers will bubble up with highs 80-83.

Areas of dense fog will develop tomorrow night with lows 57-63.

As clouds build Thursday with still some residual cold air aloft, I cannot rule out a few isolated showers with highs 78-83.

We should clear with areas of dense fog developing Thursday night.

Lows will drop into the 50s.

Multiple rounds of showers & storms are possible Friday night to Monday morning.

Some will be decaying & collapsing as they approach & pass, others will maintain their intensity or intensify, depending on what time of day they move through.

Isolated severe weather may develop at times.

Timing of each individual round or its strenght is unclear, but we will be the path of the rainfall with very warm to hot, muggy weather.

Timing of shower/storm complexes will also have an effect on the high temperatures for the weekend.  Going for 85-90 Saturday & 88-93 Sunday.  Dew points will rise into the 70s, making it feel hotter.

The rounds of rainfall will all be occuring on the periphery of the intense southern Plains heat wave with a slow-moving cold front stalling & then gradually sinking southward.

It appears that 3-6" of rainfall could occur from northern Illinois to Iowa.

Latest data suggests 0.75-2.25" in our viewing area Friday night-Monday morning with much variability in rainfall. 

A few showers & storms may bubble up Monday, followed by a dry & slightly less humid Tuesday.

A late-season heat wave is still on the table for late August.  It is looking like 90 to the 90s could occur August 25-30 with heat indices climbing +100.  We will continue to monitor & fine-tune the outlook.

A lot of it looks dry, though it is not out of the question that a random "Ridge Rider" impact us very early on in the heat wave or a few spotty airmass, pulsey storms develop at times in the instability of the heart of it.  However, the main storm & severe weather track will be way to the north of the area from Montana & the Dakotas through Manitoba, northern Minnesota & Ontario.

Note the late August temperatures anomalies with only the Northern Plains normal to cooler than normal with hot upper ridges in the West & South & East.

It should cool after Labor Day to overall normal temperatures with below normal temperatures west & northwest of the area.

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