August 12, 4:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest update on the severe weather risk.

Posted: Aug 12, 2019 3:46 PM
Updated: Aug 12, 2019 4:20 PM

We continue to be mostly cloudy to cloudy over the area with clearing in a corridor along I-57 & then over central & southern Illinois.

Outflow boundary from storms to our southwest (that produced rainfall as high as 9" in 10 hours) is laid up southwest of our area.

This intersects another boundary over central Illinois as stronger jet winds aloft begin to impinge on that area.

Hot, unstable air is on the move northward where temperatures are as high as 95 in the St. Louis area with dew point to 80!  Heat indices are +110.

The unstable, increasingly sheared area wtih boundaries shows increase severe risk parameters (pink to red is good for severe):

Outflow boundary & intersection of ouflow boundary could pop a few isolated storms over the next several hours.  Any of these isolated storms could go severe & ridge instability gradient into our area as it expands northeastward. 

After 9 to as late as the midnight-1 a.m. period, more robust severe risk will occur with supercells in Illinois gelling into a line of storms that will tend to ride instability gradient into the area. 

Wind is the main threat with risk of an isolated brief tornado or two & perhaps an isolated embedded hailer.

The Storm Prediction Center still has ENHANCED RISK for areas along & south of a Brook to Remington to Flora to Russiaville line with SLIGHT RISK elsewhere.

If there would be an upgrade to MODERATE RISK, thinking it would be confined to Illinois.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible due to tail end of storms training.  Rainfall rates will be very high in storms anyway at up to 4" per hour.

Potential is there for some areas to get a quick 1-3" of rainfall with isolated +3".

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 81°
Kokomo
Few Clouds
77° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 79°
Rensselaer
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 78°
Fowler
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 78°
Williamsport
Scattered Clouds
79° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 80°
Crawfordsville
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 79°
Frankfort
Overcast
80° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 80°
Delphi
Clear
76° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 78°
Monticello
Clear
76° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 78°
Logansport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 73°
Cooler & less humid!
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