SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK up for the viewing area with an expansion of the ENHANCED in the latest Storm Prediction Center update.
It would not surprise me if an upgrade to MODERATE RISK occurs in Illinois today as tornado risk appears to be increasing there.
Looks like supercells with wind, large hail & tornadoes southeast Iowa to Illinois will transition into a line of storms that will impact our area.
Wind is the main threat for us, but any embedded supercells or LEWPs (S shapes in the line) & developing comma head (Bookend Vortex) supports the risk of a couple of isolated, brief embedded tornadoes in the line. An isolated hailer or two is possible.
A renegade lead supercell could occur well ahead of the line here early this evening well-ahead of the line.
So, I went for 5 p.m. to 12 a.m. time frame for severe weather, through there may be some lulling between that potential supercell & the actuall evolving line of storms.
Locally-heavy 1-3" rainfall is possible for parts of the area with an isolated +3" amount or two.
We should stay cloudy for a bit longer before we clear later this afternoon, then heat up rapidly & turn oppressive.
While it is cloudy, I cannot rule out a couple isolated showers/t'showers.
We are watching west-central Illinois, northwest Illinois & also southeastern Iowa to northern Missouri for storm development ahead of a plume of hot, unstable air in the clearing.
Conditions suitable for severe storms (pink & red lines) are developing & expanding north & northeastward.
The potential of a few isolated renegades early evening:
The line later evening-tonight:
- August 30, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 12, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 20, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 19, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 24, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 27, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 7, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 7, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 8, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 9, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update