SLIGHT Risk of severe weather is still up viewing area-wide with ENHANCED to near the state line. Potential is still there for expansion of ENHANCED into the area given the shear expected with the instability as the line develops & passes through.
There are a lot of clouds around, largely from torrential storms from near St. Louis & over southern Illinois.
Up to 9" of rainfall has fallen in the past 10 hours near St. Louis.
There are many reports of significant flash flooding around St. Louis & over southwestern Illinois.
These storms will depart there & move through southwest Indiana & Kentucky, resulting in some clearing here this afternoon after nothing more than an isolated shower.
The main disturbance that will produce our severe weather is over southern Iowa & northern Missouri & moving eastward.
Hot, unstable air should flood northward as skies clear here with dew points surging well into the 70s with highs 80s to 90. Heat indices will surge to the upper 90s to lower 100s.
A lead, renegade supercell may pop & affect a part of the viewing area early this evening, but the main line will occur later.
I went for a 5 p.m. to 1 a.m. time frame.
However, between that renegade & the line, there will be a period of storm-free weather for the viewing area.
Main threat from line is wind. However, an LEWP in the line may yield an isolated, brief tornado.
An isolated hailer or two is possible.
Locally-heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3" are possible for part of the viewing area with a couple isolated +3" amounts.
- August 12, 11:45 AM Weather Forecast Update
- August 30, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 7, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 9, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 11, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 11, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 27, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 26, 11:45 PM Weather Update
- August 18, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 20, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update