August 11, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Turning hotter & muggy again with storms, then cooler for a while next week (then more heat & high humidity).

Posted: Aug 11, 2020 9:29 PM
Updated: Aug 11, 2020 10:11 PM

Highs today ran 79-84.

Lows tonight should drop to 56-63.  With partly cloudy skies, some patchy fog is possible, followed by partly cloudy skies & highs of 82-86 Wednesday.  Dew points will run 62-66, so it won't feel refreshing, but it won't feel terrible.  There will be a hint of mugginess in the air & you'll still sweat with those 80s.

Partly cloudy skies & some patchy fog with 58-63 tomorrow night should give way to partly cloudy skies & highs 82-86 Thursday.  The humidity will drop a bit more Thursday with 58-65 dew points.

Both days will feature east-northeast to east winds at 8-15 mph.

Thursday night to Friday looks partly cloudy with lows of 58-64 & highs of 85-90 as the wind turns to the southeast, then south.  Warm front will be lifting northward & dew points will be on the increase.  This will make it feel increasingly humid later Friday.

Heat indices will rise to 86-94.

A couple/few isolated storms are possible Friday late afternoon-evening (25%).

Friday night will be warmer & humid with lows 67-71.

BELOW IMAGE...............Note "Ridge Rider" bow of severe storms racing from North & South Dakota through Minnesota to Wisconsin & Iowa Friday night to early Saturday morning.

We need to watch & see what that line does here for Saturday.

The best wind fields will be northwest of our area for severe weather, but we will heat up & the MCV & outflow boundary may be triggers for new storms (even as the bow weakens.......outrunning the strong nocturnal low-level jet & better, deeper CAPE or instability......a.k.a buoyancy).

So, I have 45% coverage of storms for Saturday still with thoughts of triggers available & highs 87-92 with dew points surging to the 70s (heat indices 95-102). 

MARGINAL RISK parameters show up (isolated severe) for Saturday.

One caveat it that the cap may also get too far northeastward & put the kabosh on too much storm action as well.  It will be present nearby & could easily overtake our area.  This would result in a dramatic drop in the 50% storm coverage.

We will monitor.

Saturday night looks warm & humid with lows 70-75 with a lot of severe weather from the Dakotas & Minnesota to Nebraska as SLIGHT to ENHANCED parameters show up.

Here, looks like Sunday afternoon-evening may feature storms flaring from MCVs of these storms.

MARGINAL to SLIGHT parameters show up here.

I put 60% coverage for storms in for Sunday, mainly evening-night with highs 87-92 & heat indices 97-105.

The main upper trough & cold front pivot & slide through Monday morning, but by that time the good instability will be gone, so 30% coverage of showers/storms seems reasonable.

We should dry out after 2 p.m. with northwest winds & highs 77-84.  The humidity will drop from north to south through the afternoon & evening.  54-59 lows are likely Monday night.

Late next week, the cooler pattern will do a 180.  Hot, humid weather with 90s & heat indices +100 will overspread the area.  Above normal temperatures will dominate late August & into early September.

We will keep an eye on "Ridge Riders" or complexes of storms on the periphery of the hot upper ridge & watch the tropics for any tropical system that can happen to get into our area by riding underbelly of upper ridge from the Caribbean & Gulf to the Plains & Midwest.

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A Cool Start to October.
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