Heavy storms occurred last night to this morning & midday with a band of up to 3" of rainfall from southeast Jasper through White, Carroll & Clinton counties. At our WLFI ob site, gust was 37 mph with storm & 0.18" fell around 4 a.m.
2.27" fell at the White County Airport, while Delphi ob site measured 2.33" to name a few.
The pattern shows up well with dangerous heat southwest of our area & then severe weather ("Ridge Rider") on periphery of that heat in Iowa.
A very well-defined MCV is in Iowa, promoting bow echo with wind. As this bow moves into hot, very muggy, very unstable environment in Illinois, it will likely intensify.
The MCS (complex of storms) will also be on the southern edge of higher wind fields (specifically mid-levels) & shear to turn it into a potentially widespread, substantial damaging wind event.
It would not surprise me to see an upgrade to MODERATE RISK for Illinois & ENHANCED RISK for our area given the highly unstable environment & a bit more southerly progression of those higher wind fields aloft.
We will see if it can make derecho criteria.
Looks like the fast-moving, bowing MCS should pass through our area in the 5 pm-10 pm time frame.
Main threat would be widespread damaging straight-line winds. Any hail looks sub-severe. Any tornado threat would be isolated.