August 1, In-Depth Look at the Now to November Outlook

I have analyzed data deeply & have a good in-depth preliminary handle on the weather regime now to November.

Posted: Aug 1, 2021 12:08 PM
Updated: Aug 1, 2021 9:19 PM

We are drying out rapidly in the area.  After rounds of heavy storms in the "Ring of Fire" late June-early July & some in mid-July, we are seeing us revert back more to the dryness of early to mid June.

That will be dominant for the rest of Summer & through Fall.  Smokiness will continue frequently the rest of summer to Fall until fires are completely put out by wetter times in the Northwest, West & Canada in mid to late Fall.

Today highs reached 77-83 with dew points actually climbing to 65-70 early in the day as higher humidity pooler ahead of secondary cold front.

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This week looks largely dry with upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s with low humidity to start, but it will end with upper 80s to around 90 with humid conditions & heat indices 90 to the upper 90s.

Patchy fog will occur frequently at night & air quality will diminish as some smoke mixes down from fires & more & more ozone develops towards the surface.  Several thousands of feet up, the smoke will also be thick, resulting in pale, hazy skies & diminished heating from the sun.

A few showers/storms are possible by next Monday or Tuesday, but the best potential of any rainfall is closer to near August 11.

This should be followed by a mid-August cool-down with highs 70s to 80 with lows 50s, but hotter late August with 90s.

It appears most, if not all, of the rainfall for August will occur with strong cold front near mid-month.

It appears that September may start hot (in fact, I see a trend more & more heat in the first half of September with 90s possible), then trend cooler & end up cooler than normal (especially later in the month).  We may go very quickly from that hot, hot regime to sudden fall as we transition from the first half of September to the second half of September.  It could be a situation of a high of 93 to a low of 43 a few days later.

Rainfall in September looks below normal.

October looks warmer & drier than normal with increased field & brush fire risk.

November is trending warmer & drier than normal, but a lot of the warmth focused in early to mid-November with risk of a late season severe weather episode.  However, rainfall is trending a bit below normal.

Tropical season will get a bit more active in August.  We have a window for a tropical system in the Caribbean &/or the southern Gulf in mid-August as the Saharan dust thins & MJO exudes slightly more influence as its phases become more favorable.

Thoughts are that we will have more activity getting into September & the season will really ramp up later than many years.

I'd watch more landfalls in the U.S. in September to October (especially East Coast).

That is a wildcard for rainfall here in September & October.

So, for the sun of it, let's compute the data & come up with a long range outlook.

Grid point is Greater Lafayette.  Keep in mind, the farther out you go, the greater the potential of changes.

August 2:  Patchy Fog AM, Then Sunshine   80/55 

August 3:  Patchy Fog AM, Then Sunshine   81/56

August 4:  Patchy Fog AM, Then Sunshine   83/60

August 5:  Some P. Fog AM, Then Sunshine 86/65

August 6:  Mostly Sunny, More Humid         89/67

August 7:  Partly Cloudy, Humid                  91/70

August 8:  Pt. Cloudy, 25% Storms, Breezy   93/72

August 9:  Pt. Cloudy, 20% Storms, Breezy   93/73

August 10: Pt. Cloudy, 30% Storms, Breezy  92/70

August 11:  M. Cloudy, 50% Storms              85/66

August 12:  Pt. Cloudy, Still Bit Humid          85/66

August 13:  M. Cloudy, 30% T'Showers         86/61

August 14:  Pt. Cloudy, Much Less Humid    79/56

August 15:  Mostly Sunny                             80/55

August 16:  Mostly Sunny                             81/55

August 17:  Mostly Sunny                             82/56

August 18:  Mostly Sunny                             85/60

August 19:  Partly Cloudy, Humid                 88/67

August 20:  Partly Cloudy, Humid                 90/70

August 21:  30% Storms, Humid                   90/67

August 22:  Pt. Cloudy, Breezy, Humid         87/67

August 24:  40% Storms..Severe Risk Poss.   91/65

August 25:  Pt. Cldy, Breezy, Less Humid      78/57

August 26:  Pt. Cloudy                                  80/55

August 27:  Mostly Sunny                             83/63

August 28:  Mostly Sunny, More Humid        88/71

August 29:  Pt. Cloudy, Breezy, Humid          91/72

August 30:  Pt. Cloudy, Breezy, Humid          92/72

Sept. 1:  Pt. Cloudy, Breezy, Humid               94/74

Sept. 2:  AM Storms, Breezy, Less Humid       83/56

Sept. 3:  Mostly Sunny                                    82/57

Sept. 4:  Mostly Sunny, Breezy                        88/68

Sept. 5:  Pt. Cloudy, Breezy, Humid                 91/70

West Lafayette
Cloudy
61° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 61°
Kokomo
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Hi: 75° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 63°
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Hi: 68° Lo: 59°
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Fowler
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Feels Like: 61°
Williamsport
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Hi: 69° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 61°
Crawfordsville
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Hi: 72° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 61°
Frankfort
Cloudy
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Hi: 73° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 61°
Delphi
Cloudy
60° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 60°
Monticello
Cloudy
60° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 60°
Logansport
Cloudy
° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: °
More welcome rainfall ahead...
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