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Areas of Dense Freezing Fog & Frosty Tonight

Areas of dense freezing fog & heavy frost will develop tonight. Rain & some sleet & snow will arrive by Wednesday.

Posted: Dec 9, 2018 8:25 PM
Updated: Dec 9, 2018 8:56 PM

SOUTHERN STORM.............BUT JUST COLD & BRIGHT HERE THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS 20s TO LOWER 30s)......

Many Areas of Upstate North Carolina, South Carolina & Virginia Have Seen +12" of Snow with Ice Storm Nearby........

It has been a historic weekend in the Carolinas!  Even in southern Kentucky, up to 0.25" of ice accreted.  +20" of snow has been reported in western North Carolina.

This image below is from the Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina area this evening with a blanket of snow & sleet & then a glaze of ice on the trees.  Freezing rain was still falling at the time of this webcam image.

FOG & BLACK ICE.........

Impacts for Our Commute Monday Morning.........

Areas of dense freezing for with a heavy frost & glittery tree branches of frosty rime will form tonight with lows 9-17.  Watch for areas of black ice on roadways!  Moisture will re-freeze on surfaces & some frost will even develop on some roadways.

Monday-Tuesday looks dry with highs in the 30s & lows in the teens with sunshine & some clouds, especially by later Tuesday & into Wednesday.

THREE SYSTEMS.........

One Weaker Storm System & Two, Strong, Deep, Gusty Storms Through December 20.........

Scattered rain/snow/sleet showers are possible Wednesday before changing to all scattered rain showers.  They may end as a few rain/snow showers Thursday before widespread rainfall Friday. This may change to a period of snow with gusty winds.  Temperatures will reach the 30s to 40 Wednesday 30s to 40s Thursday & 40s before falling into the 30s Friday.

Another similarly-gusty storm with rain to snow will occur around December 19.  However, the 19th storm may see a sudden warm-up to 50-54 before falling to the 30s, after 30s & 40s preceding this.  Both storms look strong & deep.  The storm around the 19th may even have some thunder with it, even with temperatures only 50-54 given the dynamics.

The warmer, moister phase of the MJO will limit Arctic blasts December 11-25, but it does not look exceptionally mild.  A lot of days will be near normal or slightly-below temperature-wise.  This is due to other factors curbing the effects of the very mild MJO phase.

When you see a massive blow-up of convection in the Indian Ocean, you can usually count-down 10-14 days & the effects will be seen here as milder, wetter weather (not always warm if other factors at play) with lower pressures Alaska to California overall.

Once the convection moves way east & you see consistent dry ridging & sinking air over the Indian Ocean, you tend to get a ridge over Alaska & thus a trough of cold, cold weather here.

BEYOND DECEMBER 20 PERIOD........

Some Rain & Snow Followed by COLD.....

The potential is there for some rain to snow around December 22-23.

Much colder weather should arrive around New Years, leading to the beginning of a colder & snowier than normal January.

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Calm and Cloudy Start this Wednesday Morning.
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