There is a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather along & east of US 231 in the 1:30-5:30 p.m. time frame today.
SLIGHT RISK is east of Indianapolis.
Temperatures are 61-70 as of 12:30 p.m. over the viewing area as a few showers have been passing through this morning-midday.
Note some clearing & how the brighter white, towering clouds are developing in that area of some clearing right now. That is an arc of showers & storms that will need to be monitored for a severe storm or two as tongue of sun & some surface-based buoyancy (CAPE) comes in (think of air parcels as being balloons & this slot has balloons that have more air in then to float better).
This slot also has good good Effective Bulk Shear values on the order of 35-40 knots, leading to some structure of the line or arc of multi-cells & a couple small lines.
Of course, as we have seen in about 5 of these types of situations since March, the risk tends to be tied up to how much sun that occurs, despite the shear & dynamic parameters. We have had high shear & helicity values for a brief weak EF0 tornado or two &/or hail, wind, but the deciding factor each time has been sunshine. They have been situations where conditions certainly support a mention, but probability hinges on insolation or more sun appearing.
Nonetheless, given the parameters mentioned the pockets of sunshine today, there is the risk of an isolated severe gust &/or hailer, even brief, weak EF0 tornado in this MARGINAL RISK corridor in the area.
Once this arc goes through in the 1-5 p.m. time frame generally, we should see some clearing with the dry slot & dry weather with strong southwest winds gusting to 35 mph.
Low clouds should pivot in tonight with lows in the 51-56 range with some showers & drizzle with strong southwest to south winds to 32 mph.
The low clouds & any rain should depart Friday morning, followed by some clearing. Clouds will linger more in the northwest, but the southeastern 2/3 of the area should see some nice sunshine.
Highs will run 65-75 northwest to southeast with south to southwest winds to 40 mph.
Friday afternoon-night to Saturday (as the next system pivots in) note the severe weather outbreak across the South & as far north as the Ohio Valley!
Supercells, supercell clusters & lines & bows of severe storms will occur Oklahoma & Texas to North Carolina & Virginia, then northward to southern Indiana & even Ohio.
Here, note the rain overspreading the area Saturday (mainly afternoon to evening) with a few storms possible.
With southeast wind, highs should run in the 60s after morning lows in the 50s.
One round of rain should pass through in the afternoon, then a lull with more scattered showers & a few storms in the evening-night, then a TROWEL structure of moderate to heavy rain & strong northwest winds to 42 mph should pivot in Saturday night & last ot Sunday morning.
The deep, stacked surface low may drop our surface pressure to 992 mb by Saturday night, so if you are sensitive to pressure drops (headache, arthritis pain) be aware.
Such a structure, when much colder, would produce heavy snowfall with strong winds.
Back in the winter of 2011, we had such a system with rain & 40s & south winds, followed by a lull with a dry slot filled with thin blanket of low clouds & fog. Then, TROWEL came in with temperatures falling to the 20s with heavy snow, near-blizzard conditions & wind gusts 45-50 mph. I believe we ended up with 2-5" of snow with significant blowing & drifting snow with very low visibility.
In this case, with temperatures falling into the 40s to 50 it means all rain, but a chilly, raw rain Saturday night-early Sunday.
Clearing trend should ensue Sunday with northwest wind 20-40 mph early, decreasing to 15-25 mph in the afternoon.
Highs of 65-72 are expected.
Lows in the 40-46 range are expected Sunday night.
Clouds will increase Monday with wind shift to the southeast, then southwest at 10-25 mph & highs 68-75.
Showers are expected Monday night with lows in the 50s.
After a shower or two early Tuesday, we should turn mostly sunny. However, cold air aloft arriving in the afternoon-evening means skies turning partly to mostly cloudy with lots of cumulus clouds. A few isolated showers are possible with these towering cumulus.
Highs of 59-65 are expected, followed by some clearing & 36-42 Tuesday night.
It looks like cold air aloft will bubble up lots of cumulus over the sky Wednesday & Thursday. After morning sunshine, skies should turn mostly cloudy in the p.m., then clear out at night. A few sprinkles &/or an isolated showers or two is possible from these clouds.
Highs should run 57-65 with lows 34-40.
After more sunshine & warmer weather Friday at 65-72 with southwest to west winds, an Alberta Clipper system should pivot through Friday night-Saturday with a few showers.
Strong winds should follow from the northwest with gusts to 40 mph.
Highs should only run in the 50s Saturday & Sunday with lows in the 30s.
Frost is possible April 19, 20 & 21 with lows as low as 29-32. Most vegetation will be fine. However, some apple & other fruit blossoms may be thinned further (after what was thinned in the April 2 hard freeze).
Highs will run in the 50s to 60s with lots of sunshine.
Showers are possible around April 23-24 from another clipper system. Highs will run in the 50s to 60s.
Note the cooler (first image) & drier (second image) than normal pattern for this general mid-April time period still expected:
1. April 27-May 5 looks warm, humid & active with multiple storm systems with showers & storms. Temperatures should surge into the 80s.
Multiple opportunities for severe weather will exist here & across the Midwest with some pretty violent weather from Texas to Iowa.
We will monitor to see how far east this MODERATE RISK-type parameters get to our west.
2. May 6-10 still looks cooler & drier than normal with some "Black Locust Winter" with highs in the 50s & 60s & lows in the 30s & 40s with some patches of frost, mainly in our northern & eastern counties.
3. After warm, muggy, active weather around May 13-18, we should have a briefly cooler, pleasant period, followed by early onset or surge of summer heat with 90 to the 90s possible. We should also dry out a lot.
4. June, July & August all look hotter & drier than normal. I do expect our first 100s in the viewing area since 2012.
5. However, saving grace would be these "Ring of Fire" MCSs, MCCs or complexes of storms on the periphery of the heat wave & the old MCVs from these complexes in the Northern Plains & Midwest. Also, the outflow boundaries from this complexes in the Northern Plains & Great Lakes could overcome frequent capping here due to the boiling nature of the intense heat & high to very high CAPE at times.
6. These pattern is also supportive of Progressive Derechos & a one with widespread, significant damaging winds could make it in here. Certainly, in summer similar to this one in this pattern, derechos tended to hit all or part of the viewing area.
This would bring very much-needed rainfall, but we do not want so much wind as to flatten corn fields or cause substantial damage.
7. Tropics will be the other help late summer. Even with us in a drought, tropical remnants can ease that dryness greatly. It does look like another active tropical season, though not quite as extremely active as last year.
8. The Fall trends warmer & drier than normal, but above normal precipitation looks to occur December-January.
9. At this point, December is trending warmer than normal, but January is trending normal to below normal temperature-wise with SSTs alignment suggesting some more frequent -NAO & -AO coupled with -EPO as compared to this past winter with considerable warm upper ridging in Canada (much warmer there with colder weather displaced farther south for some extended periods of time). This would support the notion of above normal snowfall in January. We will continue to monitor. This, despite likelihood of double-dip La Nina.
10. The La Nina will begin to wane late winter-spring 2022, but its lingering effects would be continued drought in the Southeast, likely continued lingering long-term drought here for a while & above normal temperatures here to the Southeast & below normal temperatures in the Northern Plains & western Great Lakes.
It would also mean greater severe weather risk in spring 2022.
11. Analog analysis shows tendency for neutral conditions trending toward weak El Nino summer 2022. This would tend to support the notion of a wetter summer with more normal temperatures. We will continue to monitor.
12. This would also trend toward an El Nino of some degree or type in the 2022-23 winter. Analog suggests it would tend to be lower end event (in terms of strength). Whether it would be a traditional or Modoki is unclear. Modoki would be colder, snowier version, while traditional would we warmer, drier version.
However, when it is weaker other factors in the pattern often out-do the effects frequently, so that will need to monitored.