SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

April 8, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain & storms for Saturday-Saturday night & a couple of cool-downs ahead.

Posted: Apr 8, 2021 9:33 PM
Updated: Apr 8, 2021 10:47 PM

Highs today reached 67-71 with a few showers followed by an arc of showers & storms passing through. T'storm wind gusts of 35-40 mph were measured at the 4 quality observations sites in northern White, Fulton & northern Cass counties (Monon, Kewanna, west of Rochester, east of Rochester).

I did not receive any small hail reports.

Any severe weather reports were over southern Michigan to Ohio to eastern Kentucky & eastern Tennessee (apparent tornado damage in multiple locations).

Of all of the viewing area rain gauges seen, rainfall totals from today vary from 0.02-0.82".  Only two gauges exceeded 0.50".  The three highest totals are:  0.82" 2 miles west of Kokomo city limits on IN 22, 0.56" 3 miles west of Rockfield (Carroll County) from spotter there & 0.55" 2 miles northeast of Cambria near IN 75 & E CR 700 N.

I measured just 0.03" at our WLFI site.  0.03" was measured at the Purdue Airport.

Some showers & drizzle are possible tonight-Friday morning, with brisk south-southwest wind & lows in the 50s.

After a lot of clouds Friday morning, nice clearing trend should get underway in the afternoon.  The far northern & northwestern area will be the last to see good clearing, however.

So, highs should run 68-76 with warmest weather from Lafayette south & southeastward.

Winds will be strong from the south-southwest at 20-37 mph before diminishing later in the day.

As lower clouds erode away, high clouds will begin increase from the southwest & really thicken up Friday night.

Lows near 50 to the 50s are expected.

It will turn mostly cloudy to cloudy by early Saturday with a lot of rain & storms with even severe weather risk southwest & south of our area.

Winds will increase from the southeast 15-25 mph by early Saturday after light wind a good chunk of Friday night.

Round of rainfall & a couple embedded storms is likely Saturday morning-midday with strong southeast winds to 35 mph & temperatures 60-64.

That round of rainfall moves north of the area in the afternoon & some sun may appear.

With some sun appearing & temperatures rising to 66-73, a line of storms could form like a spoke on the east flank of the spinning low pressure.

This line could feature MARGINAL RISK or risk of isolated severe storms for the area.  Today is the 5th time since March we have been on the cusp of isolated severe.  We have not had solid SLIGHT RISK or greater parameters really make it here, though those have occurred west, northwest, southwest, south, southeast & east of the area.

The parameters on Saturday PM do show MARGINAL RISK for, wind, hail, brief, weak EF0 tornado.

The main area of severe weather will run from southeast Michigan to Ohio to North Carolina Saturday PM & also in the South.

Winds ahead of this line & with that sun, will turn to the south at 25-37 mph.

That line of storms will race through, followed by a dry slot with clearing Saturday evening & strong southwest winds to 40 mph.

Watch the sequence of this impressive severe weather outbreak Friday-Saturday from Oklahoma, Missouri & Texas to Virginia & Florida!

All storm modes & all storm threats present from very large hail to damaging winds (some significant +75 mph) & tornadoes.  Flash flooding is also expected.

Note the incredible number of streaks of high helicity.  In this high-resolution model, this gives an idea of where tornadoes may occur or storms may be rotating strongly at the low levels to produce tornadoes.

Anything in dark green, yellow, orange or red in the model indicates low-level rotation that may bring about tornadoes. 

This is very impressive.

The SPC-issued ENHANCED RISK of severe over a massive are of the South will likely feature an upgraded area to MODERATE RISK given current parameters seen.

The only fly in that ointment is with so many rounds of severe storms around, their interactions will ultimately determine how impressive this outbreak gets & how high SPC upgrades. 

Really, northwestern Louisiana to far southern Arkansas & the southern half of Mississippi shows the highest risk currently for a couple of strong to violent tornadoes.

We then cloud up again with wind turning to the west with gusts to 43 mph.

Then, TROWEL of rain & strong, gusty northwest winds to 42 mph come in Saturday night to early Sunday with lows in the 40s to 50.

Sunday should see an improving weather trend with skies showing a clearing trend, gradual decrease in the wind & highs 64-71.

A total of 1-2" of rainfall is expected Saturday morning-Sunday morning.

After 40s Sunday night, Monday should see 68-76 for highs with lots of sunshine, then increasing clouds & a southeast wind becoming south at 15-25 mph.

Showers & a few storms are likely Monday night with 50s, followed by a few early showers, then clearing, then increasing clouds Tuesday.  A few isolated showers & sprinkles are possible with the cold air aloft & cumulus filled sky (mostly cloudy) in the afternoon.

Total rainfall Monday night of 0.02-0.30" is expected.

Highs will run 57-64, followed by 38-44 Tuesday night.

Wednesday & Thursday feature highs 56-62 with lows 35-40.

Each day will feature cold air aloft cumulus (partly to mostly cloudy).  A few isolated showers to sprinkles are possible Thursday.

Friday looks windy & warmer with sunshine & highs 65-72.

A clipper system should pass Saturday with windy weather & a few showers with highs 56-64 & lows 37-42.

Highs should only run in the 50s with lows in the 29-33 range with frost/light freeze risk in the April 18-24.

Should see a big warm-up & it get much more active with showers & storms April 27-May 5.  80s are likely.

May 6-10 looks cooler & drier with "Black Locust Winter".

Mid-May looks stormy & warm, followed by drier weather & early onset of some summer heat with 90 to the 90s.

West Lafayette
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 42°
Kokomo
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Rensselaer
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 36°
Fowler
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 42°
Williamsport
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 40°
Crawfordsville
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 43°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
43° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 43°
Delphi
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 40°
Monticello
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 40°
Logansport
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 37°
Warmer, Mild Conditions Ahead
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