It is nice & warm today after showers & t'storms in the north lastnight, largely along & north of US 24. The closest hail reports were around Fort Wayne & north of Kankakee in Will County, Illinois. Hail maxed out near penny size, according to the reports. Some 0.75-1" rainfall totals occurred in parts of Pulaski, Fulton to northern Miami counties.
Temperatures as of 12:30 are 68-75 over the viewing area with rising dew points of 57-64. The 73 at our WLFI ob site as of noon is the warmest temperatures so far this year & the warmest since early October.
There is still a lot of cloudiness over the area, but we should see some more sun this afternoon with increasing southwest winds to gusts as high as 35 mph.
I went for highs of 76-81 with dew points rising to 62-66 to make it feel rather or sticky humid out.
We should be capped all afternoon as EML or cap overspreads area. Went for scattered cumulus/stratocumulus underneath capping inversion with more sun with time this afternoon.
Around & after 6 p.m., t'storms should flare up from far eastern Iowa, through southern Wisconsin, far northern Illinois to southern Michigan.
Wind, hail, isolated tornado risk will exist in these supercells & supercell clusters.
It will merge & grow upscale into a line becoming more of a wind threat & move east-southeastward.
Line looks the absolute strongest northwest, north & northeast & also east to southeast of our area area. Earmarks of ENHANCED RISK show up in parameters from southern Michigan to Pennsylvania & Ohio.
We will see.
However, the viewing area is under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather.
Scattered severe gusts would be the main threat here with risk of even some hail in discrete notes possible in the line.
Line or broken line of t'storms should pass in the 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. time frame.
As for tomorrow..........
SPC has MARGINAL RISK or isolated severe risk south of a Fowler to West Lafayette to near Michigantown town line & southward. They have the SLIGHT RISK pretty far south of our area.
However, I think it is likely for the SLIGHT RISK to be pushed north to cover part of our area.
Also, there is an an area of ENHANCED parameters over northern Mississippi, northeastern Arkansas to southwestern Tennessee where an area of best deep layer shear overlap with the best surface CAPE.
There will also be a large area of large to very large hail potential from supercells & supercell clusters from far southern Illinois to northern Mississippi & northeastern Arkansas to central Kentucky.
New data is suggesting that tomorrow gets very warm once again at 74-81 over the area. Note the intense heat over Oklahoma to Missouri west of dryline (even upper 80s St. Louis to southern Illinois & western Kentucky.
Front that moves through tonight should move back north as a warm front tomorrow morning to midday.
Winds should turn to the southwest & increase to gusts of up to 35 mph.
Thinking that a couple supercells, LEWP ("S"-shaped line segment) or bow will pass over part of the area in the Wednesday evening in the 8 p.m. to 11 p.m.
Threat would be wind, hail, isolated tornado.
This will be a strong secondary front. Temperatures will crash Wednesday night with northwest winds up to 45 mph. Isolated +50 mph gust is possible. Temperatures may drop to 35-40.
Thursday looks mostly cloudy with northwest winds still gusting up to 45 mph & even a few isolated light rain/snow showers &/or sprinkles/flurries. Temperatures will run in the 40-46 range.
Friday looks chilly with partly to mostly cloudy skies & 40s with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph (after 29-34 Friday morning).
Chilly pattern with multiple nights of frost & freezing (20s) & even a weak clipper system with a few rain/snow showers will occur in the April 9-16 time frame.
I see no severe weather risk until after April 17 as pattern change to warmer, wetter, stormier pattern develops.