SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

April 6, 11:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some showers/t'storms with some severe weather risk (& warmest weather of the year so far) followed by much colder weather ahead.

Posted: Apr 6, 2020 9:48 PM
Updated: Apr 7, 2020 12:28 PM

After lows of 30-39 this morning with some fog (after 56-62 yesterday), highs today ran 63-69 from northeast to southwest over the viewing area. 

At the Purdue Airport, the high was 67.  We reached 67 at the WLFI ob site.

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Scattered showers & t'storms will develop later tonight-Tuesday morning, mainly in the north half of the area.

An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out north of US 24 (north of line running Kentland to Remington to Monticello to Logansport to Peru).  Threat would tend to be storm that produces 1" or greater diameter hail, as storms will tend to be rather elevated north of the warm front.

Coverage of rainfall should run overall around 50%.

Isolated severe weather timing is 5 a.m.-7:30 a.m. & most of the scattered showers/t'storms potential is in that time frame.

Any even lingering isolated showers should be completely gone by 11 a.m., it appears.

Lows tonight should run 52-62.

Looks like partly cloudy skies with southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph Tuesday with the warmest temperatures of the year (so far) at 75-79.

80-84 is possible in Illinois!  We will see if we can get that kind of warmth to sneak into our west!

An elevated mixed layer or cap will overspread Illinois, then Indiana tomorrow afternoon keeping any sort of shower/t'storm from developing in our viewing area.  It just looks like flat, "fair weather" cumulus clouds all over the sky.

Cap will be broken through over southern Wisconsin & northern Illinois to southern Michigan after 6 p.m. Tuesday evening.  Threat there would be from supercells & supercell clusters with hail, wind risk & risk of isolated tornadoes.

This would all be in the 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. time frame northwest, north & northeast of our area.

As said, we will be capped, but severe t'storms are possible through tomorrow afternoon from Ohio to Virginia (along & south of warm frontal zone).  Some severe t'storms could occur from individual storms & clusters over parts of the Southeast, particularly over North Carolina.

Then, again, note the blow-up of severe weather over Lower Michigan to northern Illinois & far northern Indiana by Tuesday evening & early night.

Latest data suggests the best severe weather risk will be north, northeast, east & southeast of our area with a large area of SLIGHT RISK parameters.  There is even a suggestion in soundings of a corridor of ENHANCED well northeast, east & east-southeast of our area in a corridor of widespread damaging straight-line winds after the wind, hail, isolated tornado risk over the Michigan area.

However, we do look MARGINAL to SLIGHT right now with any storms that form on the tail end of all of the severe storms to our northeast & east.

Any sort of isolated severe risk here would tend to occur in the 11 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame.  Risk would be largely wind.

This COULD change & go BACK to more widespread SLIGHT RISK for our area, but with the data in front of me, this is the current outlook.

Note the SLIGHT RISK from Peru to Lafayette to near Covington & southeastward & MARGINAL RISK elsewhere.

Thinking definitely higher severe probabilities will go up for southern Michigan (& again, possible ENHANCED upgrade there or nearby).

Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK for part of the area Wednesday evening as scattered showers & t'storms pass through.

Higher risk (SLIGHT RISK) is setting up west, southwest & south to southeast of our area.

Wednesday should feature increasing clouds & highs 64-71 northeast to southwest.

Total rainfall Tuesday morning to Wednesday evening should run 0.30-1".  A few isolated +1" totals are possible in the north & northeast.

This was the last SPC outlook.

Thinking SLIGHT RISK will be expanded northwestward to central Illinois & the MARGINAL RISK will be pushed back northward into our area a bit.

I wouldn't surprise me if ENHANCED RISK is put up for a pocket in southeastern Missouri to northeastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi & far western Tennessee where tornado risk may greatly increase in the 8 p.m. to 12 a.m. time period Wednesday evening-night.

Chilly, windy weather will dominate Wednesday night through Thursday.  Highs Thursday should only run in the 40s (at best) with a few spotty rain & snow showers.  Winds may gust up to 40 mph from the northwest.

Thursday night looks cold with upper 20s to mid 30s with only 40s Friday with brisk northwest wind & partly to mostly cloudy skies (with a couple sprinkles/flurries possible).

20s to lower 30s are possible Friday night.

It looks plain chilly with frost & freezing on many nights April 9-16 (warmer, wetter, stormy weather should arrive & be with us for a while after April 16).

A few rain/snow showers could occur in a brief duration, but precipitation will continue to run below normal.

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West Lafayette
Clear
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Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
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Hi: 84° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 83°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
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Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 88°
Delphi
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
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Monticello
Clear
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Hi: 91° Lo: 67°
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Logansport
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