Interestingly, Friday, April 3 was the likely the driest Winter or Spring day in the Lower 48 since February 5, 1991.
Of the thousands of weather stations across the U.S., it was only a tiny area in west-central New Mexico that saw even a trace of precipitation.
That is quite a feat!
Preliminary highs today as of 4:30 p.m. are 75-83. Preliminary high at Greater Lafayette is 81.
Many locations saw their first 80 today. This is well ahead of schedule first 80 or greater is usually in the April 19-25 time frame.
This is 2-3 weeks earlier than normal, though we normally see our first 75-79 April 5-12.
This is the earliest surge of 80s in the area since 2012 & the warmest consistent stretch to start April since 2010.
Highs of 77-83 are expected Tuesday (forecasting 83 at Greater Lafayette, which would break the record high of 82 set in 2010).
The low of 63 Wednesday night would beat the record warm low of 62 set in 1991.
Highs of 77-82 are expected Wednesday with 81 at Greater Lafayette. The record is 82 set just last year.
We will get the leftovers of severe weather to our northwest, west & southwest Wednesday night-Thursday AM after sunshine, mixed with clouds Tuesday-Wednesday (more clouds Wednesday than Tuesday with lots of cumulus).
Looks like severe weather risk will reside well to the north in Minnesota & Iowa then shift to eastern Kansas to Arkansas & Louisiana over the next 2.5 days with more like SLIGHT RISK parameters at times. MARGINAL RISK may be pushed farther northeast to include our far southwestern to western fringe.
Here, we may see an isolated severe storm or two hang on long enough to get in here Wednesday night-Thursday AM. Better risk is to our west, however.
Winds will be south-southwest to south at 15-35 mph the next couple of days.
Wednesday-Wednesday night SPC outlook:
After 60% rainfall coverage Thursday AM, coverage should go way down, then increase with some heating Thursday afternoon. Some spokes of showers & storms will pivot through with 45% coverage with clouds/some sun & highs 68-75.
Friday is looking drier. I kept 30% coverage for a few showers & t'showers, mainly in our northwest. Otherwise, it looks partly cloudy with cumulus & highs 70-76.
Saturday looks wetter with showers & storms with an average of 60% coverage & best coverage in the PM.
An isolated severe storm or two are possible (parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK threshold sneaking into the area), otherwise main severe weather corridor will be focused southwest, south & southeast of our area with pretty widespread severe weather outbreak Missouri, Illinois to southern Indiana to the Gulf Coast.
Parameters suggest up to ENHANCED RISK there.
Highs here should run 66-73 Saturday.
Total rainfall Wednesday night-Saturday night is running 1-3" with isolated +3".
Sunday looks dry with highs 65-72 & lows in the 40s.
Monday looks good, just increasing clouds with highs 68-75 & lows in the 50s.
A lot of severe weather is expected Texas to Tennessee to Georgia Monday-Wednesday of next week.
We should see showers & storms get back in here by Thursday night with highs Tuesday-Thursday generally 70-78.
Some pretty violent severe weather with tornadoes may occur Thursday-Saturday across the South (eastern Texas & Arkansas to Tennessee to Georgia). There are signs of ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK parameters showing up in Dixie Alley again.
Here, we see one round of showers & storms Thursday night-Friday AM that does not look severe, followed by another round late Saturday.
That actually shows a tongue to SLIGHT RISK parameters sneaking into the viewing area after highs in the 70s & 80s Saturday. We will monitor.
After that, drier, cooler weather is here with some frost & light freezing possible (April 18-24).
Pattern should go back to much more action by April 25.
Showers & storms return here & quite violent storm action shows up in analog & long-range data from eastern Oklahoma & Texas to Arkansas to Mississippi & Tennessee.
Some of this will likely sneak northeastward some with time.
May 1-6 also shows risk of a severe weather episode with above normal temperatures.
May 7-10 looks cooler with some 30s to 40 lows at this point.
May 11-16 shows more rounds of showers & storms with warmth, then once last burst of "Black Locust" winter with upper 40s to lower 40s.
After that, trends point to early surge of summer heat & drier weather.