Highs today ran 55-61 over the area. Projected highs were 58-64, so it was about 3 degrees cooler than expected.
Despite the mostly cloudy skies, the lack of wind made it feel pretty good on what was a very seasonable early April Day.
Tonight, skies are mostly cloudy to cloudy. There are a few patches of very light drizzle/mist around.
Getting into the overnight, lows should run in the 40s to around 50 with patchy fog possible.
Low clouds & patchy fog will very slowly break up Saturday, leading to partly cloudy skies eventually. With a southeast to south breeze highs should reach 67-73.
After 50s with partly to mostly cloudy skies Saturday night a wave of some showers & t'showers should pass Sunday morning, followed by dry weather with clouds/sun. Temperatures should warm then to around 70 to the mid 70s with southeast to south to southwest winds at 20-40 mph.
The main round of showers & t'storms should develop in the evening & into the night.
Dynamics & shear with the surface instability support some severe risk here. Latest data suggests SLIGHT RISK criteria being met. Currently, we are under MARGINAL for part of the viewing area, pending new Storm Prediction Center update overnight.
Strong storm system continues to be depicted in the model ensembles for late next week.
Heavy, wind-driven snowstorm is possible in the Plains to Minnesota & Wisconsin. Some snow is possible as far south as northwestern Missouri & northern Illinois to Michigan.
Here, it is showers & t'storms Thursday with strong gradient winds as storm ramps up over Iowa to Wisconsin.
Shear, dynamics combined with instability make the Supercell Composite Index. It is just an overall good measure of severe weather risk.
Model ensembles show severe risk depicted with the system over our area.
Some nights of frost & freezing will follow getting into mid-April.
Much warmer weather will overspread the area in late April. 80s are likely! This, with high humidity expected will make it feel like summer.
The potential of many opportunities for severe weather will occur with the very warm, humid weather late April to the beginning of May. The colors show the severe risk areas.