April 4, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

The new data is in.....let's look from now to late summer!

Posted: Apr 3, 2020 10:18 PM
Updated: Apr 3, 2020 11:15 PM

Mostly cloudy skies & a couple of spotty sprinkles amidst the virga this morning gave way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon.  Clouds rolled in this evening, however.

Highs today reached 65-72.

High at the Purdue Airport was 71 (with thermometer issue at the airport appears resolved).  We actually hit 71.6 here at the WLFI ob site, making it the warmest day of the year so far & the warmest since the 76.1 on October 10.

Best rainfall coverage over the next 7 days is Monday night & Tuesday night (50-60%).

I went with 40% Saturday with that peak mid to late morning with showers (0.05-0.15" rainfall totals followed by patchy fog Saturday night-Sunday morning with 31-35).

30% coverage of some showers/t'storms looks good for Monday & Tuesday with lots of dry time.  It will be breezy to windy by Tuesday to Tuesday night.

Monday night shows a tendency for greatest rainfall coverage to be in the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area.

Tuesday night tends to show line of t'storms just ahead of cold front.

Parameters still show MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK.  A corridor of higher severe risk resides west & southwest of our area.

Some data is suggesting a slowing arrival of the front & surface low.  This could mean more in the way of t'storms on Wednesday than Tuesday night.

We will monitor. 

If this occurs, then Wednesday would tend to be warmer than the forecast of 65-70 early, then falling.

Late next week looks cooler.

Overall, April 9-17 looks cooler than normal with a trend toward continued overall below normal rainfall.  Many days will have highs in the 40s & 50s with lows near freezing.

I cannot completely rule out a even a system with some rain & SNOW showers.

Warmer, wet, stormy pattern looks to take hold for latter half of April.  Next preliminary severe weather risk after April 7-8 is after April 18, it appears.

Summer shows a continued tendency for above normal temperatures overall.

Precipitation is a bit below normal, mainly due to drier latter half of summer after a wetter first half.  This would change if we see tropical remnants impacting our area more.  There is certainly an earmark for an above average Atlantic hurricane season as well transition to a La Nina.

June-July-August overall mean temperature anomalies:

June-July-August precipitation anomalies:

Mean temperatures continue to show tendency to be above normal for the entire Lower 48 for Fall 2020.

September-October-November mean temperature anomalies:

I think September & October will be drier than normal (they are typically drier anyway), but rainfall in November will shift us to just a bit below normal oveall for the fall (as we catch up).

September-October-November precipitation anomalies:

45

West Lafayette
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Below normal temperatures & patches of frost in the north & northeast.
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