Today's high of 78 was 1 degree shy of tying the record high of 79 set in 1986.
We will not be close to the record of 85 set in 1988 tomorrow (forecasting 80).
However, we will be close to the record highs of 82 set in 2010 & 2020 Tuesday & Wednesday (forecasting 81).
It will not to too far from record warmth at night Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday.
Record warm lows.....
Tuesday, April 6: 67 - 2001 (Forecasting 60)
Wednesday, April 7: 66 - 1929 (Forecasting 62)
Thursday, April 8: 62 - 1991 (Forecasting 63)
Highs overall ranged from 72-78 today for this Easter (3 years ago up to 6" snow fell on Easter, but it was all melted by early afternoon).
We will just have some more cloudiness compared to today Monday-Wednesday. Highs will run 77-82 daily with lows nice & warm in the 50s to 60s. Each day looks windy with south to south-southwest to southwest winds gusting to 30-40 mph at times.
Round of rainfall & storms are likely Wednesday night-early Thursday morning. Isolated severe storm or two is possible, but main area of severe risk is Iowa to Missouri, Illinois & Arkansas.
Some scattered showers & a few storms are possible Thursday with continued warm conditions with 67-75, followed by increasing showers/storms perhaps Friday to Saturday. Peak in coverage should be Saturday. Highs 66-77 are expected.
Overall, the severe weather risk is much higher southwest & south of our area.
An isolated severe storm is possible Saturday & possibly Thursday if some sunshine can be maximized for a time.
We should be dry & mostly sunny Sunday with lows back to 40s & highs near 70.
By Monday, April 12, we should be in the 70s & severe weather should be re-charging significantly in the Plains.
Tuesday, April 13: Partly cloudy. High 71-75 (74) Low 47-53 (51)
Wednesday, April 14: Increasing clouds & breezy (SSE G20-26 mph). High 73-77 (76)
Wednesday night, April 14-15: Mostly cloudy & breeze (SSE G22-30 mph). Sct'd showers & storms. low 55-60 (58).
Thursday, April 15: Showers & storms. Some severe risk possible (MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters) Windy (S to NW G 26-35 mph). High 71-79 (77). CIPS data keeps risk in the Plains, my analog shows it extending eastward to our area.
Thursday night, April 15-16: Clearing. Windy (NW G30-40 mph). Low 38-43 (41).
Friday, April 16: Partly cloudy. Windy (NW G30-40 mph). High 57-64 (63). Low 33-38 (37).
Saturday, April 17: Mostly sunny. Windy (NNW G30-40 mph). High 54-62 (60). Low 31-36 (34).
Sunday, April 18: Mostly sunny. Breezy (SE G22-27 mph). High 65-71 (68). Low 50-58 (56).
Monday, April 19: Clouding up. Windy (S G30-40 mph). Few sct'd showers & isolated storms (clipper-type system). High 68-76 (74). Lack of solid instability & displaced steep low-level lapse rate precludes any mention of severe (despite good shear & dynamics). Only way this will change is if steep lapse rates (cold pocket) are displaced atop warm sector & ahead of cold front.
Monday night, April 19-20: Showers ending. Windy (NW G30-40 mph). Low 36-42 (39).
Tuesday, April 20: Partly cloudy. Windy (NNW 30-40 mph) High 53-60 (58). Low 29-32 (31).
Wednesday, April 21: Sunny, then increasing clouds. E wind becoming SE to S. High 58-64 (62). Low 38-46 (45).
Thursday, April 22: Partly cloudy. Breezy (S G26-35 mph). High 65-72 (70). Low 45-56 (54).
April 23-May 1: LOTS of severe weather & severe weather outbreaks in the Plains to Lower & Mid-Mississippi Valley.
We look warmer than normal & wetter than normal. Preliminarly analog & long-range model data show tendency for greatest severe weather risk here for the period in the April 26-27 time frame.
Thoughts here are of slight cool-down May 2-3, then warm-up with showers/storms May 4-5, then "Black Locust Winter" May 6-10 with some patchy frost with lows 32-39 (likely around 36 Greater Lafayette).
Warmer, wetter, severe weather pattern with greater & consistent severe risk here shows up May 11-16.
After May 17, looks like much of the substantial severe weather & rainfall risk shifts northwestward to the Dakotas & Minnesota to Iowa & Wisconsin & Ontario like July.
We may have a renegade event here, however.
Nonetheless, it is definitely & hot, dry trend in late May with early onset of summer temperatures of 90 to the 90s. Looks like the hottest late May weather since the record heat of 2018 & before that, the near/record heat of 2012.
June looks hotter & drier than normal with potential drought. The way this would change is IF we can get the "Ring of Fire" pattern with rounds of showers & storms with severe weather across our area, rather than areas northwest, north & northeast of us.
That would be the deciding factor.
Even in the hot, dry pattern here we will see some storms, but if the current pattern continues to hold in analog & model solutions, they will be more few & far between with dominant track north of the area & more airmass, pulsey storms than more typical, widespread June storms.
July looks hotter & drier than normal with drought risk, but "Ring of Fire" will be monitored.
August looks hotter & drier than normal, but the tropics could be of great help & the "Ring of Fire" pattern will be monitored.
In all three months, risk of Progressive Derecho will be monitored, as pattern is good for one to get into our viewing area or nearby