SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

April 30, 8:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on Marginal Severe Risk, Flash Flood Watch & Outlook to Next Week.

Posted: Apr. 30, 2019 7:58 PM
Updated: Apr. 30, 2019 8:20 PM

Cold, rain-chilled air is forcing outflow boundary to move southward, turning winds to the north & northwest at Lafayette, Attica & Covington.  Meanwhile, warm front is trying to move northward in response to disturbance riding through central Illinois.

The cold outflow boundary is tend to shove warm front to the south & the two are merging over Fountain, Montgomery & Tippecanoe to Clinton counties, separating 50 from nearly 70 degrees.

This is resulting in enhanced surface to 1 km low-level shear in this zone of up to 35 knots.

Helicity or spin values of up to 300-350 m2/s2 are also found in this zone.

This overlaps a little tongue of +500 J/kg of surface CAPE or surface buoyancy.

This is resulting in a little nudge of 10% conditional tornado probability getting into this zone.

So now to 1-2 a.m., an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out with any storm(s) that can really organize. 

A randomhailer of pea to quarter size is possible anywhere (north, along or south of the warm front/gust front or outflow boundary) & risk of an isolated brief, weak tornado just south of the warm front.  The risk of an isolated severe gust will exist just south & south of the warm front.

It is possible that this risk moves a bit northward as the warm front tries to drift northward.  However, any isolated severe risk will diminish before 2 a.m.

So, rain/storms begin to migrate northward & then weaken with time. 

Isolated showers Wednesday morning will give way to clouds/sun & windy, humid conditions & highs 73-80.

Some scattered storms will pop late afternoon-evening.

Isolated severe storms are possible.

Another round of showers & storms is likely Thursday morning.  An isolated severe storm is possible, followed by clouds/sun & 70-78 Thursday after overnight lows in the 60s.

A final wave of showers & storms may pass Thursday evening-night.

An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out if it gets unstable enough.

River flooding will increase over the weekend & next week & ponding of fields & in lawns & on roads will occur with these downpours.

Friday looks dry with sun & 62-67.

Some rainfall is possible Saturday with 62-66.

Warm front will meander back & forth of the area next week, resulting in off & on showers & storms & some severe risk.  Temperatures will also vary greatly over the area at times between 50s & 60s & 70s & 80s.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Kokomo
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Rensselaer
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Fowler
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Williamsport
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 75°
Crawfordsville
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Frankfort
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Delphi
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Logansport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
A few storms are possible Saturday.
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