Highs today reached 55-70. It was cool in the north & northeast due to strong lake breeze front surging in with northwest, then sudden north-northeast winds. The south & southwest warmed the most, as that area was latest to get the cold surge from the fetch of wind blowing over the Lake Michigan water.
Winds will diminish tonight & with clear skies & dry air, temperatures will tank to 40-47 over the area by 11 p.m.
However, warm front will approach, so some patchy high clouds are possible late & our southwestern counties will see a south wind at 5 mph by 7 a.m.
So, lows will vary from 35-44.
Some patches of frost are possible from Pulaski to Fulton, Cass, northeast White & Miami counties.
With south-southwest winds 25-45 mph Saturday & mostly sunny skies, temperatures will skyrocket to 77-84.
Lows tomorrow night, with south-southwest winds to 34 mph, will only drop to 60-66.
Sunday looks partly cloudy & windy with highs 82-85. South-southwest winds will run 22-41 mph.
We turn cloudy Sunday evening-night with a couple to few showers & t'showers, then a wave of showers & storms should pass late Sunday night-Monday morning.
A break should follow with sunshine, south-southwest then south winds to 37 mph & highs 80-84. Dew points should surge to 64-70, making for a humid to muggy day.
Storms should re-developing from southwestern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa to western Illinois to Missouri & southward in the afternoon. These will likely be supercells & clusters of supercells with severe weather risk.
They should tend to congeal into a squall line & move eastward.
We should get these Monday evening.
Current parameters suggest SLIGHT RISK to ENHANCED RISK here & ENHANCED RISK over a broad area southward to Tennessee & Arkansas. MARGINAL RISK parameters reach southern Michigan.
Splitting HP supercells & HP supercell clusters are suggested by data in the Lower Ohio to Tennessee Valley & upper South with greater tornado & large hail risk. Parameters suggest a pocket of MODERATE RISK there.
We will await official Storm Prediction Center forecasts. I am just showing you what the latest analysis is showing.
Parameters suggest QLCS squall line here with embedded LEWPs, bows with wind as the main threat, but an embedded tornado or two is certainly possible.
Pretty low freezing levels suggest a 1-1.75" hail core or two.
The Skew-T plot.............the atmospheric EKG.....
This shows a cross section of the projected troposphere wind, temperature profiles Monday evening near Greater Lafayette:
A round of rainfall is likely Tuesday PM-night-Wednesday AM. A few embedded elevated t'storms are possible, but the main severe weather risk area will occur south of our area.
A lot of severe weather is expected from Louisiana to southeastern Indiana with more SLIGHT to ENHANCED parameters showing up. Another pocket of MODERATE RISK appears to be evolving as well.
We should end up north of the warm front with an east-southeast to east wind.
Highs of 63-70 are expected Tuesday.
64-70 Wednesday with sunshine will give way to 63-69 Thursday.
67-75 Friday & gusty southwest then west to northwest winds will occur with Alberta Clipper.
A few showers & storms are possible with some hail risk as cold air aloft arrives.
A few showers & t'showers are possible Saturday as cumulus towers bubble up with cold air aloft with isolated small hail. Highs of 61-66 are likely with northwest to north wind at 20-35 mph.
Next Sunday looks dry & mostly sunny with highs 62-69 & lows 37-43.
After a storm system with showers & storms possible around May 11 (we may stay north of the warm front, keeping us in the 60s with rain & elevated storms with severe weather risk south of our area), we don't look to turn active with frequent rounds of rain & storms with severe weather risk until around May 15-16. This stormy, wet, warm, active pattern should continue to perhaps May 25.
Around May 20 shows best preliminary risk for severe weather for our area.
Brief cool snap should be followed by hot & dry weather with 90 to the 90s at the very end of May.
Some bursts of intense heat & humidity occur in the first 10 days of June with oveall above normal temperatures.
It looks like a good pattern for a lot of violent weather with tornadoes from Montana & Saskatchewan to Manitoba, the Dakotas to Colorado, Nebraska, Minnesota & Iowa.
Here, we will likely have a round or two of severe weather in the "Ring of Fire" as a complex or two of severe storms occurs on the periphery of the waxing & waning or pulsating hot upper ridge.
This will be really helpful in an overall hot, drier pattern.
If we could get 1-2" out of each round that would be great with all of the 90s around.