Temperatures as of 2 p.m. are 49-60 over the viewing are north to south. However, it is in the 70s south of I-70 & in southern Indiana, Mt. Vernon has 84, as does Boonville & Evansville is 84 & climbing.
As the warm front lifts northward, our highs will occur this evening to tonight at 63 to 70 northwest to southeast.
A fleeting wave of some showers & storms will continue to develop to our southwest & pass later this afternoon-evening.
However, another (but larger) cluster of showers & storms may follow as line of storms congeals in Illinois to Missouri.
Any of these storms in our area late afternoon to evening could produce isolated severe weather. Threats in order are wind, isolated tornado, hail.
Tornado or Severe T'Storm Watches are possible for Illinois & the watches could reach the state line or possibly overlap into Benton, Warren Fountain counties. We shall see what evolves.
The SLIGHT RISK of severe weather is up to the state line per SPC. The rest of the viewing area is under a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather.
A line of severe storms will move eastward late evening-tonight. As it approaches & gets into our area, it will be in weakening mode, but could produce an isolated severe gust around the state line.
The line then decays pretty rapidly overnight as upper ridging overspreads area from the southeast & warm front shoots way north of our area, bathing us in warmth & high humidity.
There may be a couple isolated showers early Wednesday morning, otherwise the day looks mostly dry with strong southwest winds to 33 mph & highs 75-80 with a mix of sun & clouds. Dew points will rise to 64-67, making for a muggy-feeling day.
New scattered storms will pop late Wednesday afternoon-evening to the overnight hours. They look to be scattered supercells & multi-cells that may organize into a few clusters as they move southwest to northeast over the area.
Some severe weather is possible from these. Threats in order are wind, hail, isolated tornado.
Lows Wednesday night will only drop to 61-66 in our area.
SPC has MARGINAL RISK of severe weather up for our area for these storms. It would not surprise me to see an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK if current parameters hold. We will monitor.
A round of shower & storms is possible Thursday morning.
Once that departs, the sun may appear & new development is possible in evening to early overnight.
Highs Thursday, with strong southwest winds & rather muggy conditions, will run 73-78.
There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather Thursday in our area morning & then again in the afternoon-evening. Main threat would be isolated severe gusts.
Additional rainfall now to Friday looks to run 1-3".
Friday looks dry, but some rain is possible Saturday as warm front moves back northward.
Next week is active with warm front meandering back & forth over the area with multiple rounds of showers & storms with some severe weather risk at times.
At this point, the BEST potential of severe weather is Thursday of next week with highs in the 80s, dew points near 70 & a vigorous upper trough swinging through with the surface cold front.
Highs will range from the 60s to the 80s over the area depending on exact position of the warm front overall next week.
I do not see us completely breaking free of this pattern for an extended period of time until mid-May.
River flooding will be an issue to late May & flash flooding risk will increase getting into May with repeated rounds of showers & storms.
Total rainfall now to May 16 looks to run 2.5-6.5" over the area.
So 1-3" now to Friday & then May 4-16, 1.5-3.5".
The Plains & western Corn Belt will continue to be wet (green) for much of May, but we will tend to dry out in latter May. Projections are for below normal rainfall (yellow) after May 18.
Normal to slightly below normal rainfall is projected for June 1-11 in our area.
Latter May not only looks to dry out overall, but it looks warmer than normal.
Early June looks warmer than normal, as well.
So, area farmers, things are going to improve. The drier times will allow for widespread planting & the warmth will allow for rapid crop germination & growth.
The flooded river bottoms will take time to dry out. Again, they may not dry out well until the end of May to early June.
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