With some overall below normal rainfall to mid-April, there are some short windows for some fieldwork for area farmers & gardeners (that includes now & also late weekend to early next week).
Highs today have run 65-71 with temperatures 64-71 as of 4:45 p.m.
Unusually cold air is roaring southward through the Plains with ice & snow Minnesota to Oklahoma.
Temperatures as of 4:45 p.m. are only in the teens in parts of the Dakotas, 28 at Des Moines, 30 at Kansas City, 33 at Oklahoma City & in the 40s now at Austin, Texas. A true spring Blue Norther!
Check out the cold weather records neared/tied/broken:
You would think that this very cold air for April will blast into our area & bring ice, but it will just flirt with us.....
It will flirt due to the cold getting moving more due south than southeast & east.
Record warm Gulf & upper ridge there will tend to prop up the cold & keep it in the Plains. Also, storm rolling toward Oregon & California (like a bowling ball) will begin to push the cold back northward as it plunges into the West.
A band of some scattered showers should pass behind the surface cold front Saturday in the cool north-northwest to north winds.
It is an anafront, so the rainfall should be behind it, rather than along & ahead of it like a typical cold front (katafront).
Coverage of the rainfall should peak at 50% late morning to midday.
Showers will gradually pull away late afternoon-evening.
Rainfall totals of 0.05-0.15" are expected.
After 50-58 in the morning, we should fall to 43-49 during the showers & shortly thereafter. We may rebound a hair to 48-53 at the end of the day with some partial clearing.
Frost, patchy to areas of fog & some very low clouds are possible tomorrow night to Sunday morning with lows 31-36 (with a light, damp, cold east-northeast to northeast wind at 2-6 mph).
Fog & very low clouds should disperse Sunday morning with some cumulus late morning to afternoon before those burn off & we end up with a mostly sunny to sunny sky late.
With an east-northeast wind, highs should reach 57-62 Sunday.
Warm front should move through area Monday with sun & clouds with a few scattered showers & t'storms. With breezy conditions (southeast to south to south-southwest winds), highs should reach 68-76.
More in the way of widespread scattered showers & t'storms are likely Monday night-Tuesday morning (60%). These will tend to develop in our area & northeastward on nose of strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. Lows of 59-63 are likely Monday night.
Any showers/t'storms Tuesday look widely scattered with sun/clouds & windy, warm weather. Highs of 73-77 are likely with south-southwest winds 20-35 mph.
Better rainfall coverage comes in Tuesday night-very early Wednesday morning with a fast-moving line of some t'storms. Some severe weather risk is still in place with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters seen.
Higher severe risk is running Iowa to Texas.
Total rainfall of 0.50-1"still seems reasonable for Monday-Wednesday morning period.
Wednesday looks mostly cloudy & windy (gusts up to 45 mph possible) with temperatures falling from early highs of 65-70.
Thursday looks partly cloudy & cool, followed by increasing clouds & some showers possible late Friday-Friday night.
There is some uncertainty with the exact timing of that wave of some showers (nothing too heavy), which potential of it to speed up & be more of a Thursday &/or Thursday night system.
We will continue to monitor & tweak.
Otherwise, it looks quite cool with highs in the 40s & 50s with lows in the 20s & 30s until we get passed the midpoint of April.
It is not 100% out of the question that a clipper brings a few rain/SNOW showers in here.
After that, latter half of April warms, up, gets wet & turns stormy.
Severe weather looks to light up in the Plains & then to the Midwest April 15-21.
At least for us (right now), it is trending more for any severe risk after April 7-8 to be after April 17.
We will continue to monitor & tweak.