0.20-3" rainfall has fallen over the area since yesterday afternoon.
Total rainfall since Monday is 0.50-3.2" for the viewing area.
An additional 0.13-0.60" is likely by Thursday evening.
Final Monday-Thursday totals should reach near 1" to as much as 3.60".
Dry slotting has lead to some sunshine today, but it is also bubbling up additional spokes of showers & t'showers pivoting around the center of the upper low in Illinois.
Current temperatures are running 52-61 over the area as temperatures in our northwestern counties begin to fall pretty quickly.
Highs today have run 57-64.
Tonight looks showery, cold & windy (gusts to 40 mph from the northwest with sustained winds at 20-25 mph) with lows 41-45 & wind chills 28-36.
Thursday looks showery, gray (except some breaks in the clouds possible in far southwest) & windy with northwest winds gusting up to 45 mph (especially noon to 6 p.m.). Winds will be sustained at 20-30 mph.
Highs will vary from 46-57. The area will be downright cold with those temperatures & that kind of wind.
Wind chills will be in the 30s & 40s all day.
Just west of our area in central Illinois, highs will reach the mid 60s with sunshine! 60s overall will reach as far east as just west of the state line.
With a slow clearing trend west to east tomorrow night, lows of 35-40 are likely with northwest winds decreasing to 5-15 mph.
Friday shows increasing high/mid clouds after a mostly sunny to sunny start. Northwest winds will turn to east & south-southeast at 3-8 mph as warm front moves in.
Highs will vary from 59-69 from northeast to southwest.
A few isolated showers/t'showers are possible Friday night as skies become mostly cloudy to cloudy. Lows will run 48-56.
With partly cloudy skies & strong south to south-southwest winds, highs of 77-82 are likely with 72-82 Sunday.
Lows will only drop into the 60s.
Note the warmth spreading eastward from Kansas & Missouri by Saturday:
Some scattered storms are possible Saturday night as front sinks a bit to the south.
Isolated severe weather risk is possible from any storm that develops (MARGINAL RISK parameters) mainly in our northwestern counties. Better severe risk will reside from Illinois to Nebraska, Iowa & Missouri to Kansas (up to ENHANCED RISK parameters).
Main disturbance rides front Sunday. Organized complex of storms (MCS) could develop with a squall line.
Severe weather weather risk is possible, largely south of Indiana 18 (SLIGHT RISK parameters here & up to ENHANCED south & southwest of our area).
A TOTAL OF 0.40-1.30" of rainfall is possible Saturday night to early Monday morning.
Saturday night:
Sunday afternoon-evening:
Monday looks drier & cooler with highs 62-70 with increasing clouds.
We turn cloudy Monday night with showers & a few t'storms likely Tuesday.
Highs of 58-69 are likely over the area from north to south with strong east to southeast winds.
Warm front tries to move farther northward Tuesday night with showers & some t'storms with temperatures 50-62.
Severe risk tries to move farthe northward, but should stay from southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana to Tennessee in the evening-overnight.
A big outbreak of severe weather is likely Monday evening over Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas to southwestern Missouri & northwestern Arkansas. High-end MODERATE RISK parameters are already showing up with substantial tornado risk.
ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK is possible over the Lower Ohio to Tennessee Valleys Tuesday-Tuesday night.
Wednesday looks windy & drier here with partly cloudy skies.
It does appear that after highs of 60-66, we may fall to 55-60 late as late breeze front comes in on north winds up to 40 mph.
With winds diminishing & clearing skies, lows of 34-38 are possible next Wednesday night with some patchy frost.
A TOTAL OF 0.80-1.40" OF RAINFALL is possible Tuesday-Tuesday night.
Next Thursday looks windy & warmer with highs 67-72 with gusty southwest winds.
Some scattered showers & t'storms are possible Thursday night, followed by drier, cool, tranquil weather for several days (May 8-11)
A night or two with lows of 33-38 are likely with some patchy frost. Highs will tend to run 58-65.
The normal last occurrence of 36 is May 1-7 in the viewing area.
Normal last 40 is May 11-18:
Normal highs/lows for the period are 69-73/47-51 for the viewing area overall.
We are much warmer, wetter, windy & stormy at times May 12-20.
Widespread 80s are likely with lows only in the 60s to around 70. May 15-18 may be the warmest days of the year so far with 84-89.
Warmth will tend to dominate overall up to May 27.
Colder weather in the Rockies & High Plains signals cold upper low/trough in the Rockies with warmth & ridging in the East.
This severe weather outbreaks will occur in-between over the Plains & into the Midwest.
Rainfall is above normal in latter May.
