April 29, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on severe weather risk time frames now to mid-May.

Posted: Apr 28, 2020 4:26 PM
Updated: Apr 28, 2020 6:27 PM

Highs today reached 73-79 (as of 5 p.m., so these may even rise another degree or two):

Storms have flared up to our west.  Severe T'Storm Watch is up in central Illinois.

Showers/storms come through this evening-early night.  Line of storms will be weakening with eastward progression through the area, but a couple/few embedded severe storms are possible in the general 9 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame.  Best potential is along & west of US 231 (western half of the viewing area).  Main threat would be wind.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in MARGINAL with SLIGHT just west of state line.

Showers tonight to tomorrow morning taper a bit with some dry slotting & sun tomorrow.

This will bubble up spokes of gusty showers & t'showers with 58-66 highs, then falling temperatures late in the day as southwest to west winds turn to the northwest with gusts to 40 mph.

If enough instability can develop with some of the sunshine, then a random, isolated, low-topped severe storm or two may form in one of these spokes pivoting around the low in our area.

Tomorrow night to Thursday morning looks showery, windy & cold with 40-45.

Rainfall will taper west to east Thursday & skies will begin to clear west to east.  This will result in highs of 50 in the northeast & 62 in the far southwest (60 at Greater Lafayette).

TOTAL RAINFALL NOW TO THURSDAY MIDDAY should run 1-2.25" with isolated +2.25" amounts.

After 38-43 Thursday night, warm front should pass Friday with increasing clouds & highs 61-71 (70 Greater Lafayette) northeast to southwest over the area.

Saturday looks windy & warm with strong southwest winds & highs 78-84.

Showers & storms are possible Saturday night with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK severe parameters (best severe risk southwestern half from Morocco to Brookston to Rossville to Sheridan & southwestward).

Another wave of showers & storms are possible Sunday with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters (best severe risk along & south of 26).

A few showers are possible Monday morning, followed by clearing skies.

A big outbreak of severe weather is possible Kansas to Texas to western Arkansas to far southwestern Missouri Monday.

ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK is likely in that zone.  Possible HIGH RISK situation may evolve in central Oklahoma to south-central Kansas with strong to violent tornadoes possible.

Rain & t'storms are likely Tuesday.

It appears that severe weather risk may reach as far north as southern Indiana, but not here (at least not right now).

Cooler-than-normal, drier-than-normal, much more stable pattern will occur May 7-10.  We may have a couple of nights where lows drop to 33-38 ("Dogwood Winter".  It is just a bit later than normal when looking at the normal last occurrence of 36 degrees.

We will monitor to see if we drop to 32 in our northeast.  It is possible.

Note the climatology of the last 36-degree temperature in the graphic below:

May 8-10 shows no severe weather risk anywhere in the U.S. with an expanse of cooler-than-normal weather.

Severe weather risk returns May 10 in eastern Montana to North & South Dakota as heat surges northward there.

Severe weather outbreak may occur eastern Montana through the Dakotas to Nebraska to Minnesota May 11 with highs there in the 70s & 80s.

Additional severe weather is possible in the central Plains by May 13. 

However, we look severe weather risk-free May 4-14 in the viewing area (based on the data in front of me right now).

Severe weather risk should return May 15 with one round & potentially another round May 16.

Parameters suggest SLIGHT to ENHANCED. 

It will also get warm with highs in the 80s.

Warmth overspreads a large area:

West Lafayette
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 75°
Kokomo
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 75° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 75°
Rensselaer
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 73°
Fowler
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 75° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 73°
Williamsport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 73°
Crawfordsville
Clear
74° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 74°
Frankfort
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 75° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 79°
Delphi
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 75° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 73°
Mainly Dry and Warmer Rest of the Week.
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