Showers & storms should form in a line along the cold front to our north & move eastward with time this afternoon.
Meanwhile, showers & storms should from to our southwest & move east & northeastward this afternoon.
This will result into two areas of showers & storms moving through the area this afternoon.
There is the risk of an isolated severe storm or two given the shear & buoyancy present.
Locally-heavy rainfall is possible in some heavy downpours.
A lull in the action is possible this evening.
Rain is likely tonight with some locally-heavy rainfall possible for some localized flash flooding (even with current dry soil conditions).
A few embedded storms are possible along & south of 18. An isolated embedded severe storm cannot be ruled out.
Widespread rainfall should taper to just a few scattered showers by 8 a.m.
A few scattered to scattered showers will pass then in the morning to early afternoon before completely tapering.
Sunshine is even possible in the afternoon Thursday with a strong northwest wind.
Highs should run 61-68 after morning lows of 48-58.
TOTAL RAINFALL of 1.5-3" possible (isolated +3") in two main bands over the area....one central & north & another in the south.
In-between, totals may be less.
Winds will go light to calm & it will cloud up Thursday evening-night as a secondary cold front & weak shortwave pass with a few isolated showers.
Behind it, wind will crank back up & be gusty from the north up to 34 mph overnight to early Friday morning.
Skies will then clear with lows 40-46.
Friday looks good with 60s, followed by 40s Friday night, then 70s Saturday & 80s Sunday. The weekend looks good with sunshine!
Tuesday-Thursday AM of next week is active with multiple rounds of showers & storms with locally-heavy rainfall.
Wednesday is the main day for severe weather risk here with SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK parameters showing up & near/at MODERATE criteria Arkansas, southeast Missouri, Tennessee, western Kentucky.
We will monitor.
After highs in the 80s, cooler, drier weather should follow with highs Thursday & Friday in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s for some "Black Locust Winter".
Around May 10 or 11 appears to be a key severe weather day, as well with higher parameters showing up.
Brief dry period is expected with cooler, then much warmer weather.
May 17-25 looks to become active severe weather-wise as well with locally-heavy rainfall before we dry out with a big surge in heat.
No doubt in late May to early June, we will likely see a random, fleeting "Blackberry Winter" with brief cool snap. We always do, even in a very warm year. It usually brings our last night well into the 40s until next September.